bitcoins (BTC) volatility remained subdued in the final days of last year, indicating that investors were in no rush to enter the markets.
Bitcoin ended 2022 near $16,500, and the first day of the new year also did not ignite the markets. This suggests that traders remain cautious and looking for a catalyst to start the next trend move.
Several analysts remain bearish on Bitcoin’s near-term price action. David Marcus, CEO and founder of Bitcoin company Lightspark, said in a blog post published on December 2. 30 he don’t see the end of crypto winter in 2023 and not even in 2024. He expects it will take time to restore consumer confidence, but thinks the current reset could be good for legitimate businesses in the long run.
Bearish calls indicate that sentiment remains negative, but there is also a silver lining. Usually, bear markets end after the last bull turned bearish. Without more sellers, the price action stabilizes and new buyers enter the market. This usually causes a reversal and begins a new upward move.
While Bitcoin remains constrained, some altcoins are showing signs of strength. Let’s look at the charts and identify the important levels to watch.
BTC/USDT
The failure of the bulls to push Bitcoin above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $16,778 has further strengthened the bears attempting to drive the price below immediate support at $16,256.
The 20-day EMA is gradually declining and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to 43, indicating a minor upside for sellers. If the bears drop the price below $16,256, BTC/Tether (USDT) the pair could drop to $16,000 and then to vital support at $15,476. A break below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.
This negative view will be invalidated in the short term if the buyers push the price above $17,100. Such a move will indicate aggressive buying on the dips. The pair could then gain momentum and rush towards $18,388. Sellers should again mount a strong defense at this level.
The pair has been stuck between $16,256 and $17,061 for some time. The bounce from the support faces a sell-off close to the moving averages. This suggests that the bears continue to sell on the rallies.
However, a small bright spot is that the bulls haven’t given much ground and the pair remains close to the 20-EMA. This increases the likelihood of a break above the moving averages. If that happens, the pair could hit $16,800 and then $17,061.
On the downside, the bears will need to pull the price below the immediate support at $16,429 to set up a retest of $16,256.
LTC/USDT
Several major cryptocurrencies are still looking for a bottom but Litecoin (SLD) is well above its June low. This indicates strong demand at lower levels.
The $69 20-day EMA has stabilized and the RSI is just above the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand.
The advantage will tip in favor of the buyers if they push and hold the price above the moving averages. The LTC/USDT pair could then climb to the overhead resistance at $75. This is an important level to watch in the short term, as a break above it could open the doors for a rally to $85.
On the contrary, if the price declines from the current level and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the pair could slide to $65.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart are slowly rising and the RSI is in positive territory, signaling that the bulls have the upper hand. There is a minor resistance at $72, but if this level is broken, the upside may reach $75.
The sellers are likely to mount a strong defense in the $72-$75 zone, but if the bulls bulldoze their way in, the rally could pick up speed and hit $80. On the downside, a break below $65 could open the doors for a decline to $61.
APE/USDT
ApeCoin (MONKEY) has been trading in a wide range between $3 and $7.80 for several months. The moving averages have flattened out and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure may be reduced.
The bears did not allow the price to break above the moving averages, but an encouraging sign is that the bulls maintained the buying pressure and did not let the price slide. This increases the possibility of a break above the moving averages. If that happens, the APE/USDT pair could rise to $4.58 and then to $5.25.
Alternatively, if the bears fail to allow the price to break through the overhead resistance, the pair could once again break down to the vital support at $3. A slide below the $3 support zone at $2.61 could signal the start of the next leg down.
The pair formed a symmetrical triangle on the 4-hour chart. This indicates indecision between bulls and bears. Although the moving averages are flat, the RSI has moved into the positive zone, indicating that the bulls have a slight advantage. If the buyers break through the minor hurdle at $3.71, the pair could reach the resistance line of the triangle.
Conversely, if the price turns down and crosses below the uptrend line, it will suggest that the bears are back in play. The pair could then drop to $3.20 and later to the important support at $3.
Related: Rewind 2022: A Roundup of Crypto of the Year and Entering 2023
PCI/USDT
Computer Internet (PCI) continues to trade below the $4.61 breakdown level, but the RSI is forming a positive divergence, indicating that the selling pressure may be reduced.
The buyers propelled the price above the downtrend line on December 21st. 30, but the bulls couldn’t sustain the breakout. The bulls attempted to breach the barrier again on January 1st. 1, but the long wick on the candlestick shows that the bears are selling on intraday rallies.
If the price slips and holds below the 20-day EMA of $3.91, the bears will try to pull the price to $3.60 and then to $3.40.
On the contrary, if the price bounces off the moving averages, the bulls will again try to push the price above $4.21. If they can pull this off, the ICP/USDT pair might hit $4.61, where the bears might try to block the rally.
The bulls managed to defend the 50-SMA but they failed to hold the price above the 20-EMA. This indicates that the bears are active at higher levels. If the price declines and falls below $3.90, the pair could fall to $3.76 and then to $3.60.
Alternatively, if the bulls break through the $4.10-$4.21 overhead resistance zone, the momentum could pick up and the pair could rise to $4.46. This level can behave like a minor obstacle but it is likely to be crossed. The pair could then reach $4.61.
BIT/USDT
BitDAO (BIT) has consolidated between $0.25 and $0.35 over the past few days, but the price action is showing signs of a possible breakout.
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover, indicating a potential trend change. If the buyers catapult the price above $0.35, the BIT/USDT pair could start a new uptrend. The pair could then attempt a rally towards the target objective at $0.45.
On the other hand, if the price declines from $0.35, it will suggest that the bears are holding that level with vigor. The price could then drop to the 20-day EMA of $0.30.
If the price rebounds from this level, it will suggest that sentiment may have shifted from selling on the rallies to buying on the declines. This could improve the outlook for a break above $0.35.
Bears will need to pull the price below the moving averages to invalidate the bullish view. The pair could then stay inside the stuck range for a while longer.
The price has fallen sharply from the overhead resistance at $0.35, but the bulls are trying to stop the pullback at the 20-EMA. If the price rebounds forcefully off the 20-EMA, it will suggest aggressive buying on a dip. The pair could then increase overhead resistance and begin its northward march at $0.40 and then $0.42.
Instead, if the price declines and breaks below the 20-EMA, several short-term bulls can take profit. This could pull the price towards the 50-SMA. Such a move will suggest that the pair might spend more time inside the range.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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