SEOUL – As more travelers from China begin to visit international destinations for the first time in three years, covid data from places with on-arrival testing offers insight into the pandemic situation in China, which, according to the World Health Organization, has been clouded by insufficient data.
In late December, two flights from China to Italy brought nearly 100 passengers infected with the coronovirus; about half of one flight and a third of another tested positive.
Countries around the world have swiftly implemented increased testing requirements for arrivals from China, which came into effect ahead of the surge in travel during the Lunar New Year holiday in late January. The new rules come into effect amid reports of overwhelmed hospitals and drug shortages in China after it reversed its “zero covid” policy.
Among the strictest are policies in Italy, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, which require on-arrival testing for passengers arriving from China. The United States requires proof of a negative test before departure, while other countries test aircraft wastewater on flights from China.
Official data showed infection rates of more than 20% among travelers from China to neighboring South Korea and Taiwan in the first week of January.
Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency data obtained by The Washington Post showed an infection rate of 23.2% for short-term visitors from China to Korea (or 314 out of 1,352 tested there). airport) from 1 January. Jan. 2 to Jan. 6. The KDCA plans to release data on all travelers from China next week, an official told The Post.
According to the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, as of Jan. Jan 1-Jan 5 About one in five travelers (21%) from mainland China tested positive for covid, or 1,111 out of 5,283 arrivals.
On Friday, Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare reported that about 8% of visitors from China from Dec. 21 to Dec. 30. 30 to Jan. 6 had tested positive for covid, i.e. 408 out of 4,895 arrivals. Data from Italy was not immediately available.
These numbers are certainly [the] tip of the iceberg, highlighting the immense size of infections in China,” Yanzhong Huang, senior global health researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote in an email, responding to early reports suggesting an infection rate. 20 to 50% among the Chinese. travellers.
The figures are particularly high, “considering that people generally do not travel abroad unless they feel well and healthy, or have no symptoms”, a- he declared.
However, given the high levels of exposure to covid in many countries, “it is not reasonable to consider [visitors from China] as sick or dangerous,” he said.
Benjamin Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, called the high early infection rates “very consistent with predictions that the majority of the population in major cities has already been infected”. He said in an email that people can stay positive on PCR tests for weeks.
“Given that most infections occurred in late December and early January, and that more than half of the population of major cities have already been infected, it is entirely plausible that high percentages of travelers have tested positive. “, he wrote. “Those who test positive will mostly have recently recovered from an infection rather than still being sick and/or contagious.”
China last month partially lifted domestic restrictions in a move seen as a response to a rare public backlash directed at the country’s notoriously strict zero covid policy.
On Sunday, China will end extended quarantine requirements for unrelated passengers, a move that will mainly benefit Chinese people who want to leave or Chinese nationals abroad who want to return. Mainland China is still closed to foreign tourists.
The move comes just weeks before the Lunar New Year, which begins on January 1. 22. Before the pandemic, traveling during China’s “Golden Week” national holiday was considered the largest annual human migration in the world.
The Chinese holiday “will ensure the virus reaches every corner of the country by the end of January,” Cowling said.
Huang said the holiday season will encourage “retaliatory tourism” – making time travel lost during the pandemic – and is likely to cause a spike in outbound infections. But he also said travelers leaving China were unlikely to worsen the virus elsewhere.
“So far, there is no evidence of new sub-variants emerging from China,” he said. “Since most of these countries have learned to coexist with covid-19, the influence of Chinese visitors is not going to lead to a spike in cases in these countries.”
The changes also come amid greater scrutiny of Beijing, which has stopped counting asymptomatic covid cases. The World Health Organization questioned China’s data and asked Beijing for more information.
Testing requirements targeting arrivals from China have drawn anger from Chinese authorities. “Some of these measures are disproportionate and simply unacceptable,” a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson told a press conference in January. 3 press conference. “We firmly reject the use of COVID measures for political purposes and will take corresponding measures in response to various situations based on the principle of reciprocity.”
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Julia Mio Inuma of The Washington Post in Tokyo and Lily Kuo in Taipei, Taiwan, contributed to this report.
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