the Seattle Seahawks The playoff scenarios for Week 17 look much tougher than expected three weeks ago. However, three straight losses and five in their last six left them closer to being knocked out of the playoffs than being involved in Wild Card weekend. Heading into Week 17, let’s take a look at the Seahawks’ playoff odds and scenarios with two weeks remaining in the 2022 NFL Schedule.
4:00 p.m. ET update
The Giants defeated the Colts.
The Commanders lost to the Browns.
The Saints defeated the Eagles.
The Lions defeated the Bears.
The Buccaneers defeated the Panthers.
Seahawks playoff scenarios to watch in Week 17
At one point, the Seahawks were sitting well in the NFL Ranking, but now they’re eighth in the NFC playoff picture at 7-8. Realistically, the Seahawks need to win their two remaining games against the New York Jets and Los Angeles Rams while hoping for more results in the next two weeks.
What are the playoff scenarios if Seattle wins?
If the Seahawks win, they will climb to 9-8. However, the tie between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants means the Seahawks must finish with more in the win column and rely on none. NFL playoff tiebreaker.
With the Commanders entering the week at 7-7-1 and the Giants at 8-6-1, the Seahawks need Washington to lose at least one game and the Giants to lose to finish above one or more. the other.
If the Seahawks win their next two games, the Commanders lose at least one, and the Giants lose their remaining two games, Seattle is in the playoffs regardless of the other results. Even if the Seahawks win both games, the Giants win one, and the Commanders win both, Seattle is out.
Where things get interesting is if the Seahawks win, then only one of the giants or commanders does what they have to do. Taking the scenario where the Giants make the playoffs, but the Commanders lose a game as an example, the Seahawks look elsewhere for help. Other NFC teams that can still make the playoffs in this scenario are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Carolina Panthers, New Orleans Saints, and Green Bay Packers.
The NFC South situation has no impact on the Seahawks. If Seattle wins, none of the NFC South teams can earn a Wild Card spot. That leaves the Packers, who would have to lose one of their next two games for the Seahawks to succeed in this scenario. If the Packers win as well, they would have the tiebreaker over the Seahawks for the last Wild Card spot.
To sum it all up, the Seahawks need two of the following to qualify for the playoffs if they win both games:
- The Giants lose their two remaining games.
- The Commanders fail to win any of their remaining matches. If the Commanders tie one game and win the other, then the Lions must fail to win one of their games.
- The Packers fail to win any of their remaining games.
Can the Seahawks make the playoffs by winning just 1 of 2 games?
There’s a path for the Seahawks to make the playoffs if they win just one of the next two games. However, what further complicates the situation is that things adjust slightly depending on whether they beat the Jets or the Rams. Let’s break down the scenarios based on which game Seattle won.
If the Seahawks beat the Jets and lost to the Rams, then they would need the following to happen:
- Commanders lose their two remaining matches
- Lions either lose one of their remaining games or tie both games
- Packers lose in Week 18 or tie both games
- Saints lose or tie one of their remaining games
- The Buccaneers and Panthers are tied, the Buccaneers lose both games or the Panthers lose one of their remaining games.
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If the Seahawks lose to the Jets and beat the Rams, things get even more complicated, especially considering the impact of ties. The Seahawks would need a combination of the following to perform:
- Commanders fail to win their two remaining matches
- Lions and Packers lose at least one of their two remaining games
- The Saints lose one of their remaining matches
- The Panthers or Saints fail to win one of their two remaining games, or the Buccaneers lose their two remaining games.
Can the Seahawks be knocked out of the playoffs in Week 17?
There are a variety of simpler scenarios that can see Seattle eliminated from the playoffs in Week 17. First and foremost, the Seahawks can avoid elimination this week by winning. If they don’t win, that’s when the scenarios come into play. Here are the five elimination scenarios for the Seahawks this week:
- Seahawks lose and Commanders win
- Seahawks lose, Lions win and Packers win or tie
- Seahawks lose, Lions tie, Packers win
- Seahawks tie, Giants win or tie, Commanders win, Lions win, Packers win or tie
- Seahawks tie, Giants win or tie, Commanders win, Lions tie, Packers win
What are the Seahawks’ chances in the playoffs?
Heading into Sunday, the Seahawks’ playoff chances are projected at 27% by FiveThirtyEight. However, by the time the Seahawks and Jets starters, that number will be very different. With Commanders, Giants, Panthers, Buccaneers, Saints, and Lions all playing in the 1pm window, things will change significantly as scenarios begin to unfold.
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What we do know is that the Seahawks can’t clinch a playoff spot this week. We also know that if they win, they cannot be eliminated this week. In a vacuum, if the Seahawks win this week, their playoff odds increase to 43%. Meanwhile, if they lose, their playoff chances drop to 5%. It underscores the number of other things the Seahawks need to play (whether they win or lose this week) if they want to qualify for the playoffs.
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