#1 Purdue (14-1, Big 10 3-1) vs. Penn State (11-4, Big 10 2-2)
January 8, 2023, 6:00 a.m. EST
The Palestra, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Television: BTN
Listing
Penn State starting lineup
| Position | # | Player | To classify | Height | Mass | hometown | Previous team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Position | # | Player | To classify | Height | Mass | hometown | Previous team |
| VS | 5 | Kebba Njie | Fri | 6’10” | 237 | Centerville, Ohio | |
| F | 2 | Myles Dread | sr | 6’4″ | 235 | Detroit, Michigan | |
| F | ten | Andrew Funk | sr | 6’5″ | 200 | Warrington, Pennsylvania | Bucknell |
| g | 11 | Camren Winter | sr | 6’2″ | 200 | Hempstead, NY | Drexel |
| g | 22 | Jalen Pickett | sr | 6’4″ | 209 | Rochester, NY | His |
Penn State Bench
| Position | # | Player | To classify | Height | Mass | hometown | Previous team |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Position | # | Player | To classify | Height | Mass | hometown | Previous team |
| F/C | 24 | Michael Henn | sr | 6’8″ | 244 | Bellevue, WA | denver |
| F | 1 | Seth Lundy | sr | 6’6″ | 220 | Paulsboro, New Jersey | |
| F | 1 2 | Evan Mahaffey | Fri | 6’6″ | 200 | Cincinnati, Ohio |
Penn State on offense
It’s an undersized team that lives and dies creating open shots. They usually settle with the five outside the arc without cutting too much into the paint, and that’s going to be tough against a team the size of the Boilermakers. They are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, and with this game the Nittany Lions are going to need a miracle to get plenty of second chance points. In other words: they better make their moves.
When it comes to size, however, Nittany Lions guards like Jalen Pickett have shown to be very physical in the paint and can tackle from low seven feet before creating their own back jumpers. They are by no means small, just a bit shorter.
They are an excellent shooting team, both on the field and on the foul line. Penn State has the effective field goal percentage ranked sixteenth and hits 77 percent of its free throws, good enough for 22nd in the nation. But here’s the thing: Purdue doesn’t foul a lot and tends to force bad shots and shut down any offensive player with some semblance of space.
With their revolving door of similarly sized guard/forward hybrids, Purdue will have to be on the lookout for one of the best shooting backyards in the conference. Another thing to keep in mind: Penn State ranks first in college hoops in turnover avoidance. Their turnover percentage combined with the way they shoot nearly negates their miserable display of offensive rebounding.
Penn State on Defense
The presence in the painting simply does not exist. They close shots well and honestly don’t give up too many shots that need to be closed. With their small roster, however, they give space to the big ones, which translates to both points for crosses and double teams that allow crosses to return the ball to an open shooter. It’s always nice for Purdue.
In their last game, a 79-69 loss to Michigan, Penn State slipped their lion’s tail between their legs near the crease. Michigan’s 7’1″ center Hunter Dickinson had an easy day and he’s not doing a lot of things that 7’4″ Zach Edey can’t replicate or improve on.
They’re great at communicating with changing defenders with off-the-ball movement, which Purdue also relies heavily on. But guys…they just get wrecked in the paint every time they face a dominating center. They’re going to have to constantly bet on whether or not to stick multiple guys on Edey. If you double-cross him, he may find an open shooter. Alternatively, you take a chance on giving him what he likes to see in the paint and just hoping he misses it. If Purdue hits its outside shots open (I know this has been said before), Penn State will be locked in defense.
Factor X – Turnover
Penn State is better at protecting the ball than any team in the country a third of the season, and I expect them to stay safe. What will they have to do to beat a team like Purdue that will almost certainly overtake them? …. Create them.
On the good guy side of the spectrum, if Braden Smith can continue to be a defensive pest and steal property against Penn State, the Nittany Lions will need a record-breaking night in shooting percentage to stand a chance against the Boilermakers.
Prediction
KenPom
Purdue – 70
Penn State – 65
33% confidence
Garrett
Purdue – 78
Penn State – 66
Look, Penn State is pretty good at their smallball brand, but I don’t see them being sneaky enough on offense to dominate a Purdue roster loaded with guys who play tight, clean defense and are all bigger at their positions. and just as mobile. It also helps Purdue get Zach Edey and they don’t.
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