NFL Week 17 DFS Value Games: Goals & Tips (2022)

Let me wish everyone a happy new year, and if you’re reading this, you’re my kind of person. With many people who are done with their seasonal fantasy leagues, DFS is where they turn. What better way to celebrate the New Year than winning contests?

This weekly article aims to comb through data, stats, and matches to determine some of the best position values this slate offers.

Let’s go.

Quarterbacks

DraftKings

Brock Purdy (QB – SF) $5,500 against BT

Some say Brock Purdy’s limited success is due to the yard-after-catch system and/or team around him. Others may point out that he made skillful throws, showed good control, and played confidently in the pocket. Either way, it’s a great place to take advantage of a perfect storm type situation.

Purdy started three games, in those games he averaged 18.3 DK points per contest and threw two touchdowns in each of them, which is more during the same streak than Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoaand Derek Carr. He’s QB11 in fantasy points per game during this streak and is now heading into a pick game against the Raiders.

Las Vegas allows the fifth-most fantasy points for quarterbacks, averaging 255.5 passing yards and 1.5 passing touchdowns per game.

Purdy doesn’t offer winning perks, but he’s still a good deal on salary and frees up money to allocate to other positions. With a nice showdown, it’s top-notch tournament play for this list while keeping the risk to a minimum.

FanDuel

Mike White (QB – NYJ) $7,000 against MER

No one knows how many doctors Mike White had to see to finally be allowed to get in touch, but rest assured whoever made the lists. Garrett Wilson and must play for a title. White’s return to the starting lineup means good things for the Jets’ offense and their pass catchers. In two of the three games he started this season, he went over 300 yards and finished QB1.

The Seahawks allow the 11th most fantasy points at quarterbacks and give up 231.7 passing yards per game. They’ve given up eight passing touchdowns in their last five games despite going 17 or fewer in four of them. John Wolford was the only quarterback in that streak to fail to throw a touchdown.

With a tidy game and reasonable pay, White is on the fringes at QB1 this week but with plenty of potential to offer.

Running backs

DraftKings

Brian Robinson Jr. (RB-WAS) $5,200 for KEY

Volume and correspondence. These are the key elements we pursue when it comes to non-obvious entries for fantasy football. This week, Brian Robinson Jr. represents both. Since returning to the field in Week 5, Robinson has seen double-digit runs in all but two games. He cleared for 80 yards or more four times during that streak and scored twice. Far from imposing figures, Anthony Gibson was ruled out for this week’s game. Caution is advised in assuming that it will add a higher than normal target number, as this work could be split between Curtis-Samuel and Jonathan Williams ($4,000).

Then there’s the game against the Cleveland Browns. They’re allowing the third-most fantasy points, 117.3 rushing yards and 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game this season.

Expect volume and a good game. From a rankings perspective, Robinson is an RB2 with an advantage this week.

FanDuel

Tyler Allgeier (RB – ATL) $6,700 against ARI

Expect Arthur Smith to step up his baseline desires with fellow rookie Desmond Ridder under center: Run the dang ball. Recently, Tyler Allgeyer has been the recipient of that desire and has seen double-digit runs in all but three games this season and 17 or more in two of the last three. He also averages 4.9 yards per carry and has broken for 40+ yards in three games this season. With Caleb Huntley no longer a threat, Allgeier should hold onto at least that volume and potentially see a bit more work, like the five targets he saw last week.

The Cardinals award the sixth most fantasy points at the position. They allowed Latavius Murray rumble for 130 yards two weeks ago and 162 scrimmage yards for Leonard Fournette Last week.

As Desmond Ridder becomes more comfortable under center, expect Allgeier and Corrdarrelle Patterson to remain one punch on the ground, with Allgeier being the biggest share of ground volume.

Wide Receivers

DraftKings

Romeo Doubs (WR – GB) $4,700 against MIN

Full disclosure, this value is somewhat dependent on whether Christian Watson dresses on Sunday. With Watson’s condition still a looming question mark and a later kick-off time, the late trade is in play for Romeo Doubs.

Doubs played a smaller role in last week’s game, registering a 13% target share while playing 61% of the snaps. However, his road attendance was barely over 50% for the game. If Watson were to be retained, the Doubs would be more involved from a participation point of view. Doubs’ market share climbed to 18.7% in the absence of Watson.

The Vikings defense is very sensitive to wide-perimeter receivers and allows the most yardage at position and fancy second points. The game is fantastic, and Doubs could retain deep appeal even if Watson is ready to go, but becomes much more attractive at his price if Watson is seated.

FanDuel

Jahan Dotson (WR-WAS) $6,100 for KEY

Jahan Dotson is back on the pitch and hopes to continue building on the success he enjoyed earlier this season. The transition to Carson Wentz is part of what makes Dotson and his salary so attractive.

variables	With Carson Wentz	With Taylor Heinicke
Games	5.0	5.0
RPP Points	14.4	8.4
Targets	6.2	3.8
Receptions	3.6	2.2
Reception course	45.6	37.2
Receive TD	1.0	0.4
Target share	16.0	12.4

Divide data courtesy of LDF

The Browns are a tough game for wide receivers. Wentz will play on a short leash and could lean a little more on the run if the commanders establish a lead. In negative or neutral game scripts, expect Dotson to see a good amount of targets.

Dotson is best used as a GPP receiver and probably won’t have a high list percentage. Assuming he regains his nearly 50% target share in the end zone he enjoyed with Wentz, another touchdown is definitely in his range.

tight ends

DraftKings

Evan Engram (TE – JAC) $4,400 against HOU

In his last four games, Evan Engram has scored 40 targets. That’s more targets in the same period than Davante Adams, DeVonta Smith, DK Metcalfand Diontae Johnson. He averaged 91.75 receiving yards per game with three total touchdowns. The emergence of engrams was both a bit surprising and hard to believe for many.

The Texans have been middle of the road against tight ends this season, but are allowing an average of 53.3 receiving yards per game. Christian Kirk was the main beneficiary of the best defensive coverage, allowing both ZayJones and Evan Engram to chain good plays. While both are in play this week, Engram is a volume-based TE1 for the week without paying the highest salary for volume.

FanDuel

Tyler Conklin (TE – NYJ) $4,900 against MER

It’s dumpster diving and hoping to find a gem. So, DFS players who mainly play cash games might want to skip this one. Conklin doesn’t have a bunch of impressive stats to flaunt and dissect. What he has is the right quarterback to scatter targets and the best correspondence for the position. The splits without Zach Wilson are surprising. Conklin is averaging 6.4 PPR points/game with Wilson to 9.4 PPR points without. His yardage average goes from 25.8 to 37.8 with either Joe Flacco or White under center, and his target share is 15.4% without Wilson.

The volume and production without Wilson is enough to get DFS interested in those looking for a bargain, and then there’s the showdown. The Seahawks, as mentioned earlier, allow the most fantasy points at the position, averaging 65.2 receiving yards and 0.5 touchdowns per game.

For those looking to load up their rosters for tournaments, Conklin is one of the best final tight targets, value-to-integrate perspective. As always with tight dart throws, we’re all hoping for that elusive touchdown.

John Hesterman is a Featured Writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. To learn more about John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @John_Hesterman.