The NFL has no shortage of storylines, but we come across a seemingly recurring topic every two weeks. the Minnesota Vikings continue to be looked down upon by the market and this time around it’s a team that tends to get the benefit of the doubt.
The sub-.500 Green Bay Packers are the Vikings’ three-point home favorites 12-3, after opening the gap to 3.5. That’s how it’s going to be for the Vikes. A professional bettor and bettor each told me this week that they would favor about seven to nine teams over Minnesota on neutral ground and about nine others would flip a coin.
“The Vikings are the Lions. It’s the same team,” longtime SuperBook and Las Vegan punter Ed Salmons told ESPN. “
Adding another layer is this game’s impact on the playoffs. The 7-8 Packers need to win their last two games to have a decent chance. Minnesota is the NFC North champion and can’t finish worse than a three-seeded.
With [Aaron] Rodgers there, Green Bay will always have the support of the crowd and even some sharp ones, especially on the frozen tundra in January,” pro punter Jay Romano told ESPN.
It’s impossible to mention the Vikings without also mentioning their 11-0 record in one-scored games, which is an NFL record. I give them credit, but the market rejects any positive turn.
The peloton has won and covered three games in a row, but I think it’s a case of smoke and mirrors. I will take the points with the Vikings. After all, their only victory by more than one scoreline was a 23-7 loss to Green Bay, albeit in the season opener.
Line moves of the week
The last two weeks of the regular season can feature unusual betting odds. The reasons range from playoff implications to key injuries. And we certainly have some storylines, much like we saw on Thursday night with the Tennessee Titans session Derrick Henry.
San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) to Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Las Vegas Raiders announced Derek Carr was benched, even though they are still mathematically alive for the playoffs.
That moved the San Francisco 49ers from 6.5 point favorites to 9.5 points. San Francisco has covered six straights and also five straights against teams with losing records. It’s the only team I would play.
Arizona Cardinals to Atlanta Falcons (-6.0)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
The Atlanta Falcons are home favorites with six points, now that David Blow He will be the fourth different QB to start for the Arizona Cardinals this season. The line was 3.5 inches long Colt McCoy planned to go. wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins also came out.
Favorite parts
Miami Dolphins to New England Patriots (-2.5)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
It’s a game against Teddy Bridgewater and Miami set to play away in New England in January. Of course, dolphins aren’t as good without Tua Tagovailoa, but I wonder how much is left in the tank. This will be their fourth game on the road in the past five weeks. Plus, they’ve lost four straight games and must know that their championship chances are doomed without their starting QB. It’s a little tricky because the Patriots are mediocre, but Bill Belichick has managed to rack up wins this season against backup quarterbacks.
Choose: Patriots -2.5
Chicago Bears to Detroit Lions (-6)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Field, Detroit
The Lions won our hearts this week, but lost a tough one last week. Detroit is now 7-1 ATS in its last eight games, but I like the underdog. The Bears offense clicked in the second half of the season. Justin Fields is dynamic and Detroit ranks second in defensive efficiency.
He should be able to flourish like he did in Game 1, when he scored four touchdowns in a 31-30 loss. I initially looked to play over 52.5, since the Bears defense ranks last in efficiency, but I prefer Chicago and points.
Choice: Bear (+6)
Indianapolis Colts to New York Giants (-5.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
A close friend nicknamed me “The Betting Bully”, so it’s just in my wheelhouse. The Colts have serious problems, and Nick Foles was not the answer to their attacking woes. He threw three interceptions and struggled with timing. This rust cannot be removed in less than a week. On top of that, the Giants need a win to clinch a playoff berth and want to avoid that scenario in Philadelphia next week. Brian Daboll provided skill and credibility, and the Giants should take care of business.
Pick: Giants -5.5
Los Angeles Rams to Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
The Rams showed more than a pulse on Christmas behind Mayfield Baker. I expect this to continue, as Sean McVay does the complete opposite of mailing it. The Super Bowl champions won’t be defending their title, but I’ve seen enough attacks to hope for a few points. Mayfield auditions for other teams. as for chargers, Justin Herbert is already elite, and now that the team is healthier, they are finally scoring points. The Rams have Jalen Ramseybut the defense still has weaknesses without Aaron Donald.
Choose: Over 42.5
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