Imagine hiring a senior executive for a Fortune 500 company and competing with other senior executives for candidates. Over the years, there has been a lot of turnover in the industry and a small number of companies have managed to tap into a particular pool of candidates. Other companies have tried to mine the same pool with varying degrees of success to the point where the pool has dried up.
What if that pool was, by definition, filled with inexperienced people who actually did the work? Maybe you would try looking at another fishing hole.
This is where the 2023 NFL coach carousel is.
Early success for Sean McVay in Los Angeles and Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco prompted a rush to find the next version of them that’s been running for half a decade now. The year they were hired, 2017, four of the league’s six new head coaches were aged 46 and under and were in the lead role for the first time. Shanahan and McVay came on the offensive end. The other two – Vance Joseph and Sean McDermott – came from the defensive end.
Geography, quarterbacks and money could be on the line for Payton, who could be a candidate for multiple openings.
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In the five training cycles since, 37 head coaches have been hired. Twelve of them served as first-time NFL head coaches aged 46 and under. That number jumps to 15, if you count Matt Rhule, Joe Judge, and Cliff Kingsbury, who were also in that age bracket and had offensive backgrounds at the NFL level (Rhule and Judge as coaches, Kingsbury as than player). Former Dolphins and Jets coach Adam Gase would be 16th in that age bracket and with an offensive past.
Meanwhile, only five defensive coaches in that age bracket got their first shot, and only 11 coaches with previous NFL head coaching experience were hired.
Will this be the year things come back?
I think on Monday we’re going to see the resulting reality of all of this – the pool of young offensive coaches isn’t as widespread as the defensive coaches. I think you have a handful of young offensive coordinators (Philadelphia’s Shane Steichen, Buffalo’s Ken Dorsey, Cincinnati’s Brian Callahan, Detroit’s Ben Johnson) who will be in the mix, but the numbers are on defense, where a backlog of players The able candidates (DeMeco Ryans and Jerod Mayo of New England, Dan Quinn of Dallas, Jonathan Gannon of Philadelphia, Lou Anarumo of Cincinnati, Aaron Glenn of Detroit and Brian Flores of Pittsburgh) are waiting.
There’s even a couple, in Joseph and Raheem Morris of the Rams, who also have previous head coaching experience.
Add that to the dynamic we talked about on Friday in our Future GM section– with owner-focused research likely to lead to more experienced coaches being hired into head coaching positions – and this represents a different hiring cycle. Which, if you could put yourself in this fictional CEO’s shoes, would actually make a lot of sense.
Along those lines, here’s what the rumor mill is producing, heading into Week 18…
• The Panthers-Saints game won’t be seeded tomorrow, but Carolina’s play could impact the carousel. Interim coach Steve Wilks has done an admirable job, keeping his team in the playoff mix through Week 17, and owner David Tepper is aware of the climate in his building – the locker room is solidly behind Wilks, who has allowed a revamped coaching staff to build a tough identity behind a penalty run game on the second half of the year. If Wilks stays, it will be with a detailed plan for the attack. The Panthers, after firing Matt Rhule, spent a lot of time looking for young offensive coaches, an indication of Tepper’s direction in his search. Wilks could bring in someone like Philadelphia QB coach Brian Johnson if he gets the job. I know the folks in Carolina believe a good performance Sunday in New Orleans might just have an impact on Wilks.
• As for Carolina general manager Scott Fitterer, I heard he was involved in laying the groundwork to find the next coach, so I think Tepper will keep him (I know he likes him) and his staff, especially if Wilks is the guy. This scenario where I think there could be a new GM – if Tepper falls in love with a coach like he did with Rhule in 2020, and that coach has leverage to push for his own General manager.
• I would say the same goes for Broncos general manager George Paton and Colts general manager Chris Ballard, two of the most respected on their side of the business. Which brings us to the beauties of the ball.
• The first is former Saints manager Sean Payton. Geography is on the line for Payton, as they are quarterbacks and money. And I’m just not sure a job will open up that ticks all those boxes. I don’t think Indianapolis would appeal to him like he once did when Andrew Luck was there. The Broncos, with their Walmart money, could throw a bag of it at Payton. But is he ready to strike his second and likely final shot as NFL head coach at Russell Wilson? Or, for that matter, Kyler Murray in Arizona depending on what’s going on with Kingsbury? The Chargers, for me, remain the one with the most to offer, and the one Payton would want, and I don’t think that job opens up. In case Payton What is take a job, he’ll probably want to bring a general manager with him, and my guess is that the general manager would be Saints assistant general manager Jeff Ireland or former Bears general manager Ryan Pace.
• The wild card for Payton, for me, would be Miami. Outkick Armando Salguero, who has been with the Dolphins for decades, reported Thursday that first-year coach Mike McDaniel might not be safe if Sunday’s game against the Jets goes the wrong way. I hadn’t heard that. And, honestly, the only way I could see that is if someone like Payton…who offered Miami a four-year, $100 million contract until last year– is the endgame. Otherwise, I think McDaniel is sticking with it, probably with changes to his defensive lineup.
• Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy and Chargers coach Brandon Staley should be safe. The former suffered serious injuries to his quarterback and left tackle, and can claim 12 wins if the Cowboys beat Washington. The latter is in the playoffs in his second year. But I’ve heard enough to not be 100% on either event, in case the first round of the playoffs goes badly for either. And, yes, Payton has been tied to both of those jobs (and with his fondness for life in Southern California, and Justin Herbert being there, and his longtime relationship with the Cowboys, you wonder if he reportedly gave up on earning $20 million a year to do those jobs).
• Meanwhile, Broncos CEO Greg Penner’s first search as Denver boss is expected to focus on experienced names. He and minority owner Condoleezza Rice, as well as Broncos icon John Elway, having ties to Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, and I would expect Harbaugh to be in the mix for this one. Cowboys defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is another obvious name to watch, given the work he’s done in Dallas and his relationships with Paton and Wilson (Quinn was the Seahawks’ defensive coordinator for both seasons of the Super Wilson Bowl).
• Where Colts owner Jim Irsay is going with his research is anyone’s guess. But Harbaugh is a name to watch. Obviously, Harbaugh knows Irsay well and played for him in the 90s. Also, a guy who I think would be among Harbaugh’s choices for a general manager – Colts assistant general manager Ed Dodds – is already in Indy. So there are reasons the fit there would make sense, with a roster that bears some similarities to the one Harbaugh had in San Francisco a decade ago. If not Harbaugh, one name to watch is Bills defensive coordinator and former Colts assistant Leslie Frazier, especially if, as expected, Bill Polian and Tony Dungy aid Irsay in the search. (I also can’t totally rule out Jeff Saturday staying because of Irsay’s fondness for his former center, although that seems unlikely.)
• A few other Harbaugh-related GM names would be former Jaguars, Eagles and 49ers manager Tom Gamble and Ravens director of football research Scott Cohen (or maybe someone in the personnel department of Baltimore, like Joe Hortiz). So… is Harbaugh leaving Michigan? The program is in good shape and it has a very good team coming back. But NCAA sanctions loomand these calls to the Panthers were made, I am told, because of his curiosity about this work, and he tells me he is really thinking about it.
If Kingsbury doesn’t stay in Arizona, expect Vance Joseph to be the leading candidate to replace him.
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• Things remain in motion in Arizona. General manager Steve Keim remains on medical leave and his future with the team is uncertain (I wouldn’t rule out he staying on to some degree after his leave), and word is that owner Michael Bidwill is strongly considering promote VP of Player Personnel Quentin Harris and VP of Professional Scouting Adrian Wilson to GM roles in a co-GM type setup (these two are replacing Keim on an interim basis now). As for Kingsbury, everything seems to be on the table: a dismissal, a negotiated exit or a fifth season in the desert. If Kingsbury is gone I would expect Joseph to be the lead candidate, otherwise them head of the list to replace it.
• The big question in Houston is whether general manager Nick Caserio will leave this season with the same level of power he had to potentially conduct a third coaching search in three years. There are many internal questions about Lovie Smith’s viability as head coach until 2023, although Smith has made his point with owner Cal McNair, and with the team playing hard on. the duration. Still, I’d say it’s likely he’s gone, with Eagles DC Gannon and Niners DC and former Texans captain Ryans as prime candidates to take his place. Flores, given his relationship with Caserio, would be another name to watch.
• While Tampa Bay and New Orleans could be potential surprises, I think the Buccaneers and Saints are staying true, but potentially with significant changes in their offensive personnel. I could also see such changes happening on defense in Cleveland and on offense in New England (where ownership expressed their annoyance to those in the building with an unconventional setup on that side of the ball).
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