Week 18 of the NFL season is upon us. Although a lot has been decided in the league, there is still a lot to be decided. The same goes for the end of season rewards market. Patrick Mahomes He’s a huge -1400 favorite to win the NFL MVP title and it would be shocking if he didn’t win the award. The odds for the NFL Defensive Player of the Year are completely irrelevant because Nick Bosa seems to have run away with the price.
While these rewards could already be decided barring a miracle, there are three rewards that are still very much up in the air as the final week of the season begins. The Offensive Rookie of the Year, Returning Player of the Year and Coach of the Year awards are all up for grabs, according to bettors.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
The race for the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year has been a roller coaster ride. Breece Hall had become the betting favorite to win the award, but he tore his ACL midway through the season. This opened the race for the prize, and this is reflected in the current betting odds:
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Kenneth Walker (-130)
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Garett Wilson (+195)
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Brock Purdy (+400)
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Kenny Pickett (18 to 1)
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Christian Watson (25 to 1)
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Chris Olave (30 to 1)
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Brian Robinson Jr. (30 to 1)
Walker is the current favorite to win the award. He’s currently at 936 yards this season and could theoretically eclipse 1,000 rushing yards with a strong showing in Seattle’s Finals against the Los Angeles Rams. It gets even more impressive when you realize that Walker didn’t become the best option to run until mid-October and also missed a game through injury.
Garrett Wilson has already eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards this season despite the quarterback’s putrid play. Wilson was the most productive rookie receiver, although Chris Olave produced more per game. No other rookie wide receiver is particularly close to these two. Wilson certainly passes the eyesight test and there is no doubt that he would have even better numbers with competent quarterback play.
Brock Purdy has the third-best chance of winning the award, which is pretty ridiculous considering he’s only made five starts this season at quarterback for San Francisco. Purdy has certainly been much better than expected, but it’s an extremely quarterback-friendly system and he’s played just over a quarterback of the season. I don’t buy it.
Kenny Pickett becomes somewhat interesting if the Pittsburgh Steelers can miraculously sneak into the playoffs again. He led consecutive winning drives in the final minutes. His all-season work isn’t great, but the recency bias might help. On top of that, he’s a quarterback, and we know voters love their quarterbacks.
Returning Player of the Year
The tightest race of all may well be in the NFL Comeback Player of the Year market. We have three players with almost identical odds of winning the prize and a fourth player sniffing around the periphery:
Geno Smith is a co-favorite to win the award. Smith has a chance to lead the sea hawks to the playoffs if they can beat the Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay loses to Detroit. Of course, Smith’s story is well known. He was picked up by the New York Jets of West Virginia, struggled on the field, got punched in the face by a teammate for over $600, then bounced around the league as a quarterback for nearly a decade. After the Seahawks trade Russell Wilson During the offseason, Smith won a quarterback battle against Draw Lock in camp and now leads the league in completion percentage while ranking 4th in touchdown passes and 7th in passing yards. He was much better than the quarterback he replaced in Seattle.
We all knew Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley were elite running back talents, but both players have struggled to stay on the pitch in recent years. This year, both have remained healthy. McCaffrey was traded to San Francisco mid-season and served as the offensive focal point for one of the league’s top teams. Barkley ranks fourth in the league in rushing yards and has been a center point for the Giants, a team that has surprised everyone this season en route to the playoffs.
Goff had a solid season in his own right and enjoyed some career upswing in his second season with Detroit. The Lions have been better than expected, but there’s a reason Goff is a little longer here. Its story isn’t as captivating as the first three on this list.
NFL Coach of the Year
A few weeks ago, Nick Sirianni was a -400 favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year. Since, Jalen hurts missed two games due to injury and Philadelphia lost both games. Now Sirianni is no longer the favorite to win the prize:
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Kyle Shanahan (+150)
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Brian Daboll (+250)
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Nick Sirianni (+250)
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Sean McDermott (12 to 1)
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Doug Pederson (12 to 1)
The tricky part of handicapping the Coach of the Year award in any sport is that there seems to be no set criteria from year to year. Some years he is the coach of the best team. Other years, he is the coach of the most surprising or improved team. Sometimes better coaching performance gets overlooked for better storytelling. All five coaches listed above have strong points and it’s impossible to know what voters will like.
Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers haven’t missed a beat despite being on their third quarterback who was the last player selected in the last draft. It’s a testament to the foundation and the system that Shanahan installed. Shanahan is the current betting favorite to win the prize as his team is likely to enter the playoffs on a ten-game winning streak.
You can say no one has done more with less than Brian Daboll. The Giants were an absolute mess for half a decade before he got that job and most of the football world, myself included, thought that Daniel Jones was entering his final season as the starting quarterback in the NFL. Instead, Jones has had a very strong season despite lacking big-name pass-catching weapons and the Giants make it to the playoffs.
If the season was three weeks shorter, Sirianni would likely have that award in the bag. However, his Eagles went 0 for 2 on the odds of landing the No. 1. 1 seed in the NFC without Hurts. What was a one-loss team is now a three-loss team, which is still an incredible feat but a little less eye-catching.
by Doug Pederson Jacksonville Jaguars are the favorites to win the AFC South after a three-win season in 2021. Trevor Lawrence has made significant progress under Pederson’s tutelage. Most years, Pederson would be a strong contender, but he’s been a bit further away this year due to the performance of the coaches above him.
Sean McDermott was also a viable candidate to win this award before last week Buffalo Tickets had a good chance of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Moreover, in the face of unprecedented circumstances with the Damar Hamlin situation, McDermott exemplified what it means to be a leader last week.
There is still one week left and the narrative of these coaches can certainly change depending on what happens on the pitch in Week 18. On top of that, this is not a stats-based award but rather a stories and expectations. This makes it one of the hardest rewards to cripple.
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