We close week 17 with a Invoices vs. bengals choose in an exciting Monday night football match.
Although we have several iterations of Joe Burrow vs. Patrick Mahomes and Mahomes vs. Josh Allen Since the start of last season, we’ve never seen Burrow and Allen face off – until now.
Including the playoffs, the Bengals are 20-3 against the Bengals spread (ATS) in their last 23 games. Can Burrow and company continue against one of the best teams in the NFL?
Let’s check the bills against the bills. Bengal odds and take your pick.
Bills vs Bengals Odds
Invoices vs. Bengals Game Analysis
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical match between the Bills and the Bengals:
Invoices vs. Bengals DVOA Breakdown
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| Overall DVOA | 3 | 14 |
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| Pass DVOA | 3 | 14 |
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| cutting-edge DVOA | 11 | 14 |
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| Overall DVOA | 5 | 4 |
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| Pass DVOA | 8 | 7 |
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| cutting-edge DVOA | 5 | 3 |
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What makes the Bengals’ run even more impressive this season is that they’ve faced a host of top-12 DVOA defenses, with Buffalo’s fourth unit representing their seventh opponent.
There was a slight but noticeable drop in the Bengals’ offensive efficiency in these spots, averaging 23.3 points per game compared to 27.9 against defenses ranked outside the top 12. The drop has been a bit more pronounced when the Bengals are up against a top-five defense, as they only had 17 points against the cowboys (No. 2) in week 2 and 22 points against the patriots (#3) last week.
The Bills field the seventh-best pass defense by DVOA and generate pressure at the 11th-highest rate (23.1%) despite blitzing at the 10th-lowest rate (19.4%). The ability to be effective without blitzing is key against the Bengals offense, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Burrow is tied for second landing assists (11), fourth in PFF rating (81.1) and seventh in assist rating (110.8) against the blitz among 39 qualified passers.
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The Bengals’ offensive line is their main vulnerability on offense. They just lost right tackle La’El Collins for the year to a torn anterior cruciate ligament. While he was not playing well (rating of 57.9 PFF, 70th out of 81 in qualifying tackles), his replacement Hakeem Adenijii was even worse (rating of 52.8 PFF). Guard Alex Cappa is the only Cincinnati lineman to rank above average this season.
The Bills allow the fifth-lowest explosive passing rate (10.9%), so Burrow will likely rely on quick play to distribute the ball to his plethora of skill position weapons. The Bills rank top 12 in DVOA against all positions but No. 1 wide receivers, but that’s misleading because they just picked up top cornerback Tre’Davious White a few weeks ago. White has allowed just 52.0 percent completion rate and 6.6 yards per target since returning in Week 12.
While the Bengals have faced a number of teams with the best defenses, the Bills are the only one of those teams to also boast a top-five offense. The Bengals’ defense is generally well-planned, but can struggle to get off the field on third downs against an elite Bills offense. Buffalo ranks first in offense with a third down conversion rate of 49.7%, while Cincinnati ranks 19th in third down defense (39.8%).
Although at first glance it looks like the Bengals were successful against a similar type of offense in the Chiefs in a 27-24 win, that’s a little misleading. Not only did the Bengals allow 8.3 yards per attempt on Mahomes and 5.5 yards per carry on Chiefs running play, but they also allowed the Chiefs to go 6-11 on third down and 2-2 on fourth down. The Bengals took advantage of a missed field goal and a worst-time fumble by Travis Kelce in that game.
The Bengals were amazing against the spread, but I think it’s a good time to fade them. While their win over the Chiefs was impressive, the difference between the Chiefs and the Bills is that the Bills pair their top four offensively with a top four defense while the Chiefs are outside the top 20 on defense. With a short gap like this, an extra stop could make all the difference.
According to our Action Labs data, teams that are 80% or better against the spread have only achieved 100-131-3 (43%) ATS since 2017.
To note: I would only bet that on -2 bills, and the line moved to -2.5 bills as of 1:45 p.m. ET. I would still bet Bills -2 as an alternate line, or you can wait to see if the line moves in our favor.
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