There is only one game left in the 2022 season, and it will be played Monday night at SoFi Stadium. This is where the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs, the reigning national champions, will take over the Cinderella story of the 2022 season, the No. 1. 3 TOS horned frogs in the college football National Playoff Championship
Georgia, who will be contesting their third national title in the last six seasons, was supposed to be there. He was one of the preseason favorites to win the SEC, make the CFP and possibly win the national title. TCU, on the other hand, wasn’t supposed to be here. The Frogs went 5-7 last year and fired the winningest coach in program history, Gary Patterson. Pre-season expectations weren’t high for this team either; Big 12 media picked the Frogs to finish seventh under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, who drove through the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex from rival EMS to take the job.
Instead, TCU reached the Big 12 Championship Game with an undefeated record and was chosen for the CFP despite barely losing to Kansas State in this game. TCU then found themselves more than a touchdown underdog at No. 1. 2 Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl semi-final, but still eliminated Wolverines 51-45 to continue his Cinderella story. Now the frogs have one more chance to shock the world.
Will TCU become the biggest surprise champion of the modern era? Will Georgia restore order and become the first program to win back-to-back national titles since Alabama did it in 2010 and 2011? We will know for sure on Monday evening. For now, all we can do is speculate, so let’s speculate like crazy.
National Championship: (1) Georgia vs. (3) TOS
Featured game | Georgia Bulldogs vs. Georgia Bulldogs TCU Horned Frogs
propagate: I can not lie. It’s scary to bet against TCU. There have been several times this season where I’ve been like, “This is it. That’s when this magic ride ends. That’s when we have to clear the frogs.” I’ve been wrong every time, and believe me, I’m not one of the many people looking for reasons to cancel TCU all season. I was high on the Frogs heading into the season, and my impression of them only improved after they got off to a good start.
But no one saw that coming. TCU plays the spoiler in the Big 12? Safe. But that’s as far as it’s going to go, right? After a while, I figured the Frogs could win the conference but lose a game or two along the way. So now I’m a little shaken. From a pure power rating standpoint, Georgia is the smartest play within two touchdowns, but TCU has defied the odds all season. I’m not ready to face them now.
Still, there are concerns about the game for TCU, and much of that will depend on the status of Georgia’s tight end. Darnell Washington. While NFL Scouts are salivating over what Washington could become as a wide receiver based on his size and athleticism, which he is already a terrific blocker in the running game. He’s basically an extra tackle in Georgia’s rushing offense. The 3-3-5 defense deployed by TCU is more resilient against teams that run two tight sets. If Georgia has Washington and Brock Bowers available on Monday, it will be a complex problem for Joe Gillespie and the TCU defense to solve. Michigan struggled after losing Luke Schoonmaker early in the Fiesta Bowl, as he was already shorthanded at the tight end point.
On the other side, this Georgian defense is nowhere near as dominant as last year’s team. This is especially true when it comes to getting after the QB. UCT Max Dugan is often his worst enemy when taking sacks, but we’ve seen Georgia’s secondary struggle against good passing attacks this season. The TCU may not have Ohio State overall depth at the receiver, but Quentin Johnson, Drius Davis and Taye Barber form a solid trio. I don’t know if the TCU defense gets enough saves to win the game, but offensively the Frogs should be able to rack up enough points to keep things respectable at a minimum. Choose: TCU +12.5
TotalFor years we have been told that “defense wins championships”. It’s not true – at least not to the level we’ve been led to believe. These days, having great defense helps you separate yourself from the pack, but having an elite offense is what wins championships. Just look at the national title winners of the CFP era. While last year’s Georgia team was known for its global defense, it also ranked near or at the top of every significant stat on offense. Alabama, Clemson and USL also won it all with teams full of first-round picks at quarterback and wide receiver. In 2014, Ohio State was reduced to its third-string QB, but even Cardale Jones found himself in the NFL after being surrounded by NFL talent on that offense.
Let’s also look at league games during the playoff era. Those eight title games averaged 64.5 points and only two finished below 60 points overall. One was Alabama’s 26-23 overtime win over Georgia in 2018, and the other was Georgia’s 33-18 win over Alabama last season. Yes, Georgia played in both of those games, but if Crimson Tide wide receiver Jameson Williams hadn’t been injured last year, this game might have been a higher-scoring affair.
If this game is a blowout, it probably ends under total. We’ve seen Georgia jump on big leads and sit on the ball a couple of times, but like I said before, I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout. It may not be as close as either semi-final, but I don’t think either team wins with less than 31 points, which makes the most appealing . Choose: Over 62.5
Who will win Georgia vs. TCU, and which side of the gap hits well over 50% of the time in simulations? Visit SportsLine to learn more – all from a proven computer model that has brought in nearly $2,500 in profit over the past six seasons.
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