The Kansas City Chiefs don’t know how the AFC playoff picture will end, but they know they have to win in week 18. That motivation made the Chiefs the heavy favorites against the Las Vegas Raiders in Sin City on Saturday.
With the status of the suspended Buffalo-Cincinnati game up in the air, Kansas City’s path to the No. 1. 1 seed in the AFC isn’t crystal clear, but taking care of business in this final of the season is all Andy Reid & Co. care about.
Las Vegas also has a schedule for Week 18. Head coach Josh McDaniels could be “singing for his supper” after a freshman year littered with late-game meltdowns and numerous calls to his position. Additionally, new starting quarterback Jarrett Stidham is trying to impress ahead of the 2023-24 campaign after a surprisingly strong effort in last weekend’s loss to San Francisco.
How does all of this affect the NFL player accessories for this confrontation on Saturday? We are doing our best Choice of NFL accessories for Chiefs at Raiders on Jan. 7.
Don’t forget to also check out our Chiefs vs. Raiders picks and predictions for a complete overview of the game!
Choice of Chiefs vs. Raiders props
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Chiefs vs Raiders Week 18 props
Catch the bag on the flags
The last time the chiefs and Raiders Played, there were more flags flying than the United with the teams calling for a collective 16 penalties in Week 5 – including 11 in Las Vegas. We could see as many in week 18.
Scott Novak’s team calls this Saturday contest and enters as the seventh happiest team out of 17 NFL umpiring teams. Their go-to offenses have been false starts, offensive holds, defensive holds, and defensive pass interference — all of which play into these two teams’ bad habits.
Las Vegas launches an inexperienced QB in Jarrett Stidham vs. A very aggressive Kansas City front four in an offense that was whistled for 20 offensive holding violations and 19 false starts — the two most common calls against the Silver and Black this season.
Raiders right tackle Jermaine Eluemunor is one of the league’s biggest offenders with 11 total penalties (the third most) at the start of Week 18. He was hit twice against KC in Week 5 , penalized for a chop block and an illegal block above the waist.
On the Kansas City side, the Chiefs’ secondary came in handy and was flagged for a record 13 defensive pass interference calls in 2022-23, including two against Vegas in this Week 5 meeting.
You have top Las Vegas targets like Davante Adams and Darren Waller getting great matchups in this game, so don’t be surprised to see the Chiefs getting frustrated and physical. The Chiefs have also had their share of calls, with 21 on the year.
Last year’s AFC West rivalry games between these foes produced penalty totals of 13 and 17, and the two games in 2020 had a total of 18 penalties in both competitions.
Novak and his team will get their quota (average of 13.73 flags per game) and then on a Saturday night.
game accessory: More than 11.5 penalties in total accepted (-135 on bet365)
Touch keys
Cue the “Old Lady of the Titanic” GIF.
While Kansas City tight end Travis Kelsey hasn’t scored a touchdown in five straight games, that’s 84 years for fantasy owners and the legions of NFL bettors who line up to play his touchdown props every game day.
So who stole all Kelce’s touchdown thunder? Who is running back Jerick McKinnon.
Kelce hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 12 while McKinnon has eight touchdowns in the last five games, including two goals in three of his last four outings. Still, despite his nose for the end zone and Kelce’s drought, TD’s anytime markets are way off on these two talents.
Kelce is listed between -128 and as low as -180 to find dirt – a huge price hike considering his TD prop has been trading at -105 and -120 for the past two weeks, respectively. McKinnon, on the other hand, pays up to +150 to keep the landing gear on track, which is a short drop from last week’s +160 rating.
Sure, Kelce scored four touchdowns in his last game for the Raiders in Week 5, but over the course of his career he’s been left out of the end zone somewhat against rivals AFC West. Take Week 5 out of the equation, and Kelce has just seven touchdowns in 16 career games against. Silver and Black.
Given the wide spread and storyline of the game for this Week 18 finale, we’re likely to see more Chiefs transfers in the second half, and if Kansas City makes it to the scoreboard, Patrick Mahomes could take place (with Kelce), leaving the offense mainly in the hands of McKinnon and the RBs.
Let’s also not forget McKinnon’s catch-and-run ability. He was a big part of that passing game, with all but one of those eight touchdowns recorded as receiving scores. He was targeted 28 times for 25 receptions in that five-game TD bonanza and sits second among RBs in red-zone targets with 15 (11 catches).
Las Vegas ranks among the worst red zone defenses in the NFL, allowing enemies to cross the goal line on 64.58% of their possessions inside the 20-yard line. The Raiders have been particularly crappy defending the pass in the red zone, ranked 23rd in RZ DVOA pass defense at Football Outsiders. They also allowed the most receiving yards to run back (818 yards) and four touchdowns through the air to position.
Kelce is a tempting touchdown bet, given his last performance against Vegas. But McKinnon continues to make money in Week 18.
Accessory by Jerick McKinnon: Land at any time (+150)
Be a baller, bet on Waller
Las Vegas tight end Darren Waller is back in shape for this final after missing much of the schedule.
Waller returned to action in Week 15, after a nine-game hiatus with a hamstring injury (missed first meeting with KC), and has gradually seen his production climb over the past three exits. — all against strong stopping units that are in the Top 15 in tight end defense.
He had three catches for 48 yards against the Patriots, four catches for 58 yards against Pittsburgh and three receptions for 72 yards against San Francisco last weekend.
Stidham targeted the big tight end five times in Week 17 against a very solid San Francisco defense and could rely on Waller as safety cover in this game against Kansas City, who are capable of solid pressure. with a fiery front four.
The Chiefs struggle with tight ends, given poor coverage from linebackers like Nick Bolton and Willie Gay Jr. as well as safeties like Juan Thornhill and Justin Reid, who rank at the bottom of pass coverage. KC turns are solid but will have your hands full of WR Davante Adams and Renfrow Hunter. That leaves plenty of opportunities for Waller to go under or go for a big shot when mismatches occur.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 21st in DVOA against tight ends, allowing an average of 51.1 yards on 7.5 targets per game at the position, according to Football Outsiders. The Chiefs recently gave over 40 days to unnamed TEs like Albert Okwuegbunam, Colby Parkinson and Greg Dulcich, and face a big step up in the TE class against Waller.
Given the scenario of the game, with the Chiefs as chalk in double figures, and a total of 53 points (the most of week 18), Stidham and the Raiders may have no choice but to make heavy passing to keep up or catch up. All good for Waller’s total receiving yards.
Accessory by Darren Waller: Over 32.5 receiving yards 40.5 (-115)
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