Before the Detroit Lions take the field against Green Bay Packersall eyes will be on the 4:25 p.m. ET game between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. For the Lions to play for a playoff spot on “Sunday Night Football,” they need the Seahawks to lose or tie that football game.
At first glance, this looks like a long task. The Seahawks are playing for their own life in the playoffs – they need a win and a Lions victory to get there – while the Rams 5-11 are injured, lack identity and have nothing but pride to play on Sunday. Seattle is also a 6.5 point favorite according to DraftKings Sportsbookso the outlook is not good.
However, I am here to tell you not to lose hope. There’s a realistic chance the Rams could cause an upset here. And I’m not going to buttress my arguments with platitudes like “Division games are weird” or emotional narratives like “Bobby Wagner’s revenge game” or “Rams rallying for Sean McVay’s last possible game?”
No. Here are five cold hard facts and reasons why the Rams could win on Sunday.
Seahawks home-field advantage hasn’t been strong this year
For years, the Seahawks have had one of the best home-court advantages in the NFL, but that hasn’t been the case in 2022. They’re just 4-4 in Seattle this year and have lost three of their last four at Lumen Field. .
Now, it’s worth noting that only one of the Rams’ five wins has come this season, but with Los Angeles often having to shut up at home, they’re certainly prepared for certain things.
The Rams can run the ball. The Seahawks struggled to stop the run
Despite all the injuries on the offensive line, the Rams have managed to put together a pretty decent rushing offense over the past two months. At the center of that is Cam Akers, who is finally starting to look like himself after his Achilles tear last season. Over the past seven games, Akers has 105 carries for 506 yards (4.82 ypc) and six touchdowns.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks have one of the worst running defenses in the league. As of Week 10, they rank 29th in DVOA run defense. And for the season, they rank 30th in rushing yards per game allowed (150.5) and 26th in yards per game allowed (4.8).
Big surprise, but it’s supposed to rain in Seattle on Sunday. The ground game could be very important.
The Rams nearly beat them a month ago
The two teams faced off in Week 13, and the Rams came close to earning that win, despite holding just a 3-8 record to Seattle’s 6-5 record. With 2:56 left in the game, Akers scored the touchdown to take a 23-20 lead. Unfortunately, Geno Smith would lead the Seahawks to an 11-game, 75-yard drive for the win.
It should be noted that the Rams quarterback in that game was John Wofford, and he played horribly. He went just 14 of 26 for 178 yards and two interceptions. Do the Rams win this game with Baker Mayfield? I guess we’ll see this Sunday.
Seahawks can’t rush
The biggest downside to the Rams right now is their pass protection. They rank 27th in PFF pass blocking, have given up the fourth-most sacks in the NFL, and rank 31st in rushing percentage allowed.
Luckily, the Seahawks aren’t a huge threat in that department. Yes, they had four sacks in the previous game, but week over week, it’s one of the worst passes in the league. They rank 28th in PFF Pass Rush rating, 30th in Pass Rush win rate, and 19th in pressure percentage.
Mayfield, who can be a decent quarterback when kept clean (103.9 passer rating with a clean pocket by PFF), might have a more comfortable day than usual.
Straight: The Rams have been the best team over the past month
In the past four weeks since the Rams acquired Baker Mayfield, Los Angeles is 2-2 and the Seahawks are 1-3. Sure, the Rams’ wins have come against the Raiders and Broncos, but just over a month ago the Seahawks lost to the Raiders at home.
And looking at some advanced stats over the past month, these two teams are much closer than the Vegas line suggests.
DVOA rankings since week 14
- Seahawks: 17th
- Rams: 19th
EPA rankings since week 14
Offense:
- Seahawks: 24th
- Rams: 14th
Defense:
- Seahawks: 19th
- Rams: 20th
Assemble it and watch these levels:
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I understand this is a small sample and the Seahawks have faced a much tougher schedule over this period (Panthers, 49ers, Heads, Jets). However, it’s worth pointing out how much better the Rams played with Mayfield at the helm.
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