The Villanova Wildcats (7-6, 1-1 Big East) will wrap up an unpredictable 2022 by taking on head coach Shaka Smart and the Marquette Golden Eagles (10-4, 2-1 Big East) at 2 p.m. ET on Fox Sports 1.
Coach Kyle Neptune and staff will be looking to bounce back from a tough game against UConn on Wednesday night, where the Cats had an unusual 18 turnovers in the eight-point loss.
They will have to reverse this trend as Marquette will bring in his ‘Havoc’ defense which specializes in producing turnovers and building up pressure. Smart will also look to defeat Villanova for a third straight game, after his Golden Eagles completed the regular-season series sweep last season.
Villanova’s last win against Marquette dates back to February 1. On February 10, 2021, when Jeremiah Robinson-Earl picked up 27 points in a 96-64 win over the Finn.
Let’s take a deep dive on Marquette before the perfect New Year’s Eve pre-game.
Protect the flag
The Marquette Golden Eagles may have lost 41% of their tally from last year (Justin Lewis and Darryl Morsell), but that hasn’t stopped Smart from developing this team for the Big East in 2023.
Their “top six” consisted of five sophomores and one junior – all returning from last year’s Marquette team that swept Villanova.
Familiarity and roster development has paid huge dividends as the Eagles are 10-4 overall and 2-1 in conference, while still on the verge of cracking the AP Top 25.
Marquette signed up for a grueling non-conference schedule playing four likely tournament teams at Purdue, Mississippi St., Baylor and Wisconsin. This stretch was highlighted by their blowout win over the then-ranked No.1. 6 Baylor at home.
Despite the four losses so far, all have been decided by less than five points and two of them have needed extra time to decide a winner.
While Marquette is battle-tested and tenacious, there are two intangibles that equal college basketball’s vulnerabilities — inexperience and games on the road.
As mentioned above, Smart is relying on a very young roster (one junior, five sophomores, three freshmen) and it’s still early in the season. The Wildcats will have the upper hand with a stronger presence of veterans from Dixon, Daniels and Slater. In the likely event the game will be close, having these guys can give the Cats a slight advantage.
Moreover, Marquette has only played three real away games so far – at Purdue, Notre Dame and Providence. Although the losses were close, they are 1-2 in these games. Despite being on winter break, having a home pitch is another plus for Villanova on Saturday.
turnovers, turnovers, turnovers
This could be a game where the deciding factor is entirely determined by who wins the turnover battle.
Stealing the ball is hands-on deck work at Marquette. As a team, they generate more than nine steals per game with five players averaging more than one per game. Marquette’s defense ranks 49the in the country by generating turnover from their defense.
Villanova’s only opponents in this lineup include Iowa State, St. John’s and UConn. In those games, Villanova coughed up 18 turnovers twice (Iowa State and UConn) and 11 turnovers the other time (St. John’s). The Cats will need to emulate the ball safety and balance shown against the Johnnies or it could be a long night for the ‘Cats.
On the other hand, Marquette doesn’t return the ball – almost at the same pace as Villanova’s attack. While the Cats don’t rely on steals, drawing charges, forcing bad passes and making life hell for Marquette will go a long way in stopping this effective offense.
choose your poison
On the offensive end of the ball, Marquette has five players who are averaging more than nine points per game, with second Kam Jones leading the group at 16.2. Within their attack, they have elite traits and others that Villanova can capitalize on.
Marquette is one of the best 2-point shooting teams in the country, ranked fourth at nearly 61%. They also love to share the ball, with 59% of successful shots coming from assists (good for 45).e in the country). However, they’re an average 3-point shooting team that doesn’t really rely on the long ball.
Based on that, Villanova should expect a smooth offense that will look for effective 2-point shots and watch the basket. Given Villanova’s poor 3-point defense, they might look outward more than they have this season, but regardless, Villanova needs to be extremely aggressive to force hard shots.
If Villanova has to sacrifice a few fouls along the way, it should be a trade Coach Neptune makes every day of the week. The Golden Eagles rank 236th in the nation in successful shots from the charity strip, and that’s hardly free points for Marquette.
On the other hand, Marquette can be extremely vulnerable on glass. They rank 250e cashing in offensive rebounds and 232n/a stop offensive rebounds.
They have three players listed in the 6ft 7in to 6ft 9in range (Oso Ighodaro, Olivier-Maxence Prosper and David Joplin) who will occupy the front court, but none have the frame to match someone like Eric Dixon who would have between 25 and 40 pounds of advantage. Marquette has 6-foot-11 freshman Ben Gold, but he only sees 8 minutes of the game.
Villanova is not known for its offensive rebounds this season, but nearly beat UConn in this category which is considered a physically large and imposing team. There could be plenty of extra rebounding opportunities from Dixon, Whitmore, Slater that could make up for lost possessions from Marquette steals.
Based on the height advantage, the Golden Eagles aren’t much of a threat to block anything. Even if their fans on Twitter may have made you think otherwise.
In conclusion, Nova Nation should expect a home and away game as both teams look to capitalize on each other’s weaknesses in hopes of ending the year with a conference victory.
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