The Saints list is in purgatory and they are in salary cap hell.
Alvin Kamara is having the worst season of his career, which was also true last year. Their QB is Andy Dalton, 35, who started the season as a backup to Jameis Winston. They have extremely limited methods to improve this position. They, of course, don’t have their 2023 first-round pick; the Eagles do. Their best hope in the draft is for someone to shell out major draft capital to hire Sean Payton.
Free agency isn’t going to help them. As it stands, they are $54 million over the cap for next year, with 17 of their top 20 earners offering them no cap relief upon release. They are by far in the worst salary cap position for 2023.
So this team is screwed. They’re too good to be really bad (at least this year), but they’re too bad to be good. Still, this team is no pushover. This game might be closer than the talent gap would indicate.
Saints pass defense is pretty good
The Saints offloading CJ Gardner-Johnson to the Eagles was a big help for the Eagles. But that didn’t really hurt the Saints on the pitch either; Their pass defense has been their driving force this season. Trading a then 24-year-old player because you signed older, more expensive players to the same position is a bad way to run a football team, but it hasn’t bitten them yet. (It will be.)
But for now, the Saints’ pass defense is playing great. They are second in yards per attempt, third in completion percentage, fifth in TD%, eighth in yards per strike, and sixth in sack rate, which is the second-fewest in passing yards per game (behind the Eagles).
Their only issue is that they’re pitiful on interceptions, tied with the Giants for the worst INT % and the least total INTs. Jalen Hurts threw more interceptions than Saints defenders caught. Which, in a way, makes their pass defense numbers even more impressive; they had to earn it all the hard way.
If Jalen Hurts was playing this game, you’d expect the Eagles to take a heavyweight approach, as the Saints’ run defense isn’t good at all and he’s struggled against QBs who aren’t afraid of run. Lamar Jackson had 82 yards, Marcus Mariota 72 yards and a touchdown, and Kenny Pickett 51 yards and a touchdown, though they held Kyler Murray to 30 yards on seven carries.
But with Gardner Minshew behind center, the Eagles lead a traditional offense, which plays into the Saints’ hands. But the Eagles also have AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith, which they don’t.
For one thing, the Saints’ defense has yet to give up a bad game to a QB who shouldn’t have a great game. Joe Burrow threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns, but it’s Joe Burrow. Geno Smith threw for 268 and three touchdowns at the peak of his now collapsing breakout. But the Bengals and sea hawks have something in common that the Eagles have: an elite WR duo. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 198 yards and two touchdowns, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf for 192 yards and three touchdowns.
New Orleans is good at staying close
The Saints also did a good job of not getting their asses kicked. They have 10 one-scored games and two more that have been decided by 10 runs or less.
Most of their schedule has been made up of wreckage and jetsam teams. In addition to the embarrassing NFC South, they’ve played the Cardinals, Raiders, Steelersrams and Browns. They also played the Vikings and it may shock you, but the Vikings won by a FG with 24 seconds left. But even the legitimately good teams they played gave a hard time. Their biggest losses were 14 against the Ravens and 13 against the Bengals and 49ers.
Jameis Winston alone had five interceptions in three games. Since Andy Dalton took over as starter, the Saints have just 14 turnovers in 12 games, a rate that would give them 17.5 turnovers over a full season, 0.5 less than the Eagles. Dalton replacing Winston has also reduced the number of sacks, Winston has taken 11 in his three starts, Dalton has 18 in his 12 starts.
After getting 23 turnovers in their first 11 games, the Eagles have just three in their last four games. This relative dryness could easily continue into Sunday.
Andy Dalton was playing relatively well
Dalton had a poor game last week against the Browns, completing eight of 15 passes for 92 yards and one interception. But going into the game, he was on a roll. In the four games before 71% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt, he had six touchdowns and zero INTs. We won’t know that the Saints were shut out in any of those games, or that he only averaged 211 yards, or that he never threw 30 times in a game. The Saints didn’t ask much of him, but he did it well. There’s a limit to how much skill can take you, like Andy Dalton never winning a playoff game or Derek Carr being told this week to go home so the Raiders don’t have to pay him the next year. But it also builds a decent floor.
Good pass defense (vs. a backup QB) + solid but unspectacular QB + not turning the ball over is a combination that could very well make it difficult for the Eagles to rest their starters in the fourth quarter. A narrow win over the Saints shouldn’t cause anyone to press the panic button.
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