The Phillies add a closer established. They would agree with Craig Kimbrel on a one-year, $10 million package. Kimbrel is a SportsMeter customer.
Philadelphia will be Kimbrel’s seventh MLB team, entering its 14th season. He returns to Eastern Newfoundland, where he was arguably the sport’s best player from 2011 to 2014 as a member of the Braves. Kimbrel remained excellent after being dealt to the Padres and then the Red Sox. Dave Dombrowski ran baseball operations in Boston while Kimbrel was there for three consecutive All-Star seasons between 2016-18. They are now reunited with Dombrowski leading the charge in Philadelphia.
Since leaving the Red Sox, Kimbrel has had his share of ups and downs. He remained in free agency until June 2019 before earning a three-year contract from the Cubs. That deal looked like a dud after posting an even 6.00 ERA in 41 appearances until the end of the 2020 campaign. However, he looked as good as ever at the start of the third season. The right-hander posted a microscopic 0.57 ERA in 31 2/3 innings through the first half of 2021, earning his eighth All-Star selection. The Cubs sent him back to the Crosstown White Sox in a delay deal that brought him back Nicholas Madrigal.
Kimbrel didn’t finish the season very well, posting a 5.09 ERA for the Sox. Chicago exercised a $16 million option on his services for the 2022 season, but bought him out most of last winter. In the days leading up to opening day, they sent him to the Dodgers in a one-for-one-for-one trade. AJ Pollock. Kimbrel spent his 34-year campaign in Los Angeles, posting strong numbers overall but showing worrying signs over time.
While his first half ERA was a 4.35 pedestrian, he knocked out more than a third of opponents in that span. The Dodgers relied on him as their closest principal at the start of the year, but he began to fall out of favor as the season progressed. Kimbrel’s second-half strikeout rate was a modest 20.7 percent. His ERA registered at 3.10 thanks to a meager .227 batting average on balls in play against him. The Dodgers were clearly skeptical of Kimbrel’s ability to maintain that kind of batting fortune. They pulled him out of the ninth inning in September and scratched him from the bantamweight entirely in playoff time.
Surely that’s not how Kimbrel or the team envisioned the end of the season, but his 2022 campaign hasn’t been a disaster. He posted a 3.75 ERA over 60 total runs. His 27.7% strikeout rate and 12.1% swing hitting percentage were each a little better than par, and he was averaging a healthy 95.8 mph on his fastball. He walked batters at a high clip of 10.8 percent and gave up quite a few hard contacts, but he still showed some quality stuff lacking at bat. While it’s not vintage Kimbrel or even on the level of his 2021 production, he’s shown enough to believe he’s still capable of playing solid.
Kimbrel has made 22 of 27 save attempts this year. He now has 394 career saves, the most of any active player. Kimbrel is expected to soon become the seventh pitcher in MLB history to hit the 400 saves mark, and he’ll have a way back to work in the ninth inning in Philadelphia. love gamers Jose Alvarado and Seranthon Dominguez were previously the inside favorites for closing work, although they are each capable of taking on bigger responsibilities in the seventh or eighth innings.
It’s a relatively inexpensive bet for the Phils, matching the $10 million flyer they accepted Corey Knebel last offseason. They’ll have to rack up a few million more in taxes, as they’ll likely cross the luxury tax threshold for a second season in a row. Philadelphia’s luxury tax liability is about $251 million, according to calculations by List resource. They are subject to a 30% tax on every dollar spent between $233 million and $253 million, so signing Kimbrel comes with an additional $3 million fee. This also brings them within a few million dollars of the second CBT threshold at $253 million. This would come with a 42% tax on overages, with higher penalties in case they exceed $273 million.
Precisely where owner John Middleton wants to draw the line is unclear, though the Phils have little reason to spare much expense in the wake of a pennant win. Philadelphia has already brought Trea Turner and Taijuan walker this winter, and Kimbrel joins Matt Strahm as relief supplements. The Phils are ready for another battle with the Mets and Braves in a heavyweight NL East, and they’ll be hoping Kimbrel has plenty of chances for wins in the back of the bullpen.
Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported that Kimbrel and the Phillies had agreed to a contract. ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to report the one-year, $10 million warranty.
Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.
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