The greatest comeback in NFL history – the Minnesota Vikings erasing a 33-0 deficit to beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday – produce some of the ugliest losing bets you will ever see.
Let’s start with the ugliest, which comes via PointsBet, an online bookmaker who tends to be more aggressive than other bookmakers with their odds in play.
At halftime, with the Colts leading 33-0, PointsBet offered Indianapolis at -20,000 odds to win the match. This means that to win $1 you have to wager $200 – and some ambitious people have found the risk worth it.
PointsBet reported taking an $1,800 bet on the Colts, which at -20,000 odds would have paid a net of $9. Yes, $1,800 for a chance to win $9.
The book also took a $3,000 bet on the Colts at -10,000 odds that would have paid a net of $30. Instead, the $4,800 from those two bets will stay with the house.
These bets, where people risk a lot to win a little, happen more often than you might think. For example, Caesars Sportsbook drew a much larger bet on the Colts around halftime: $50,000 at odds of -5,000, which would have netted $1,000. This money too will stay with the house.
“We see it all the time,” said Adam Pullen, assistant trading director for Caesars Sportsbook. “Once a team is big enough, people are willing to risk a lot to win a little. But you lose one and it takes a lot to get out of the hole. It looks like easy money, but it doesn’t There’s never such a thing as easy money in this business.
All was not bad for the punters. There were believers in Vikings as they began to mount their comeback.
PointsBet offered the Vikings at 90-1 as they trailed 33-0 at halftime. By comparison, DraftKings had the Vikings at 40-1, Caesars at 30-1, BetMGM at 17-1 and WynnBET around 15-1. The odds difference is a stark reminder for bettors to always buy the best stock.
“We don’t really cap those long money lines,” said Sam Garriock, director of sports trading for PointsBet. And that’s why you see the difference between our book and some others.
“We are happy to swallow bets at these high prices,” he added. “It’s been pretty profitable for us at this point.”
PointsBet said it only took a few small bets on Minnesota at 90-1, the biggest being $5, but the action on the Vikings resumed as they mounted their second-half comeback.
“It accelerated at the start of the fourth quarter,” Garriock said. “We took a bunch at 20-1, a bunch at 17-1. There was a lot of Vikings money line so I think this one will probably end up stinging a bit.”
Despite winning the $50,000 bet at halftime on the Colts, Caesars said the in-play bets cost the book virtually everything he had won on the action placed before kickoff. dispatch, which was unbalanced towards the Vikings.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook had a similar experience.
“Let’s just say the work in progress hasn’t gone well for us,” said SuperBook executive director John Murray. “I’m glad it was a regular season game and not a playoff game or worse. It could have been a lot uglier than it was. Like when matt ryan lost the Super Bowl with a 28-3 lead, for example.
A few other notable bets on the biggest comeback in NFL history:
Before starting, a bettor from North Carolina bet Caesars $25,000 on the Vikings to win the match at odds of -190 and – if he didn’t throw away his ticket sooner – won a little more of $13,000.
• After the Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins He threw an interception with eight minutes left in the fourth quarter and the Colts led 36-21, a client of New Jersey Sporttrade betting exchange placed nine bets on the Vikings for a total of just under 5,000 $ with average odds around 5-1. The bets, which were placed in nine minutes, generated a profit of around $25,000, according to Sporttrade CEO and founder Alex Kane.
• PointsBet saw a flurry of in-game player prop bets on pennies on passing yards for Cousins and receiving for the Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson. “There were discussions in the office about whether we really wanted to book these things with a chance of them sitting in the fourth quarter.”
Cousins passed for over 400 yards in the second half and Jefferson finished with 12 catches for 123 yards.
• A Caesars bettor in New York caught the Vikings 12-1 in the game and won $24,000 net on their $2,000 bet.
NFL notables
• The underdogs covered the spread in each of the first six kick-offs on Sunday, giving sports betting a big lead over the betting public. The favorites and the public however fought in the afternoon.
“As good as the first games were, the last ones were just as bad,” Pullen said.
The favorites went 3-0-1 in the afternoon games, highlighted by the Cincinnati Bengalscomeback victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Las Vegas Raidersunlikely victory over New England Patriots on the final play of the match.
“The Bengals were brutal and the Raiders were bad,” added Pullen.
• Cincinnati is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games. The Buccaneers are 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12 games.
• The Detroit Lions covered the gap as small underdogs in a 20-17 win over the New York Jets. The Lions have covered the spread in seven straight games.
• The Carolina Panthers lost as 3-point favorite Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday. It’s the Panthers’ ninth straight loss as a favorite, tying Carolina with the Seattle Seahawks (1979 to 1981) for the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era.
• The top NFL bets reported on Caesars Sportsbook were:
$240,000 on Broncos -2.5 vs. Cardinals (earned)
$156,190 on Bengals -3.5 to Bucs (won)
$125,000 on Titans + 3.5 at Chargers (lost)
World Cup notables
• Argentina entered the World Cup as one of the betting favourites, but their title run was anything but smooth. They opened the tournament by losing to 25-1 underdogs Saudi Arabia in one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history. In the round of 16 they twice gave up a two-goal lead, most notably in Sunday’s final against France, and had to advance with penalties.
Against France, Argentina opened up a two-goal lead in the first half and looked in perfect control with 10 minutes of regulation time. Around the 80th minute, PointsBet had Argentina at -10,000 to lift the trophy. A bettor placed at $500 bet on Argentina at that price. Shortly after the bet was placed, France scored twice within two minutes to force extra time. Both teams scored in extra time, sending the game to a penalty shootout, where Argentina won.
“Of the teams with a realistic chance of winning, Argentina was our worst-case scenario in the term book before the World Cup,” said Murray of the SuperBook. And we took more money from them at 8-1 after they lost their first game in the group stage [to Saudi Arabia]. So we were way behind the day before the NFL action kicked off.”
Sportsbooks didn’t know what to expect from betting interest on the World Cup, which for the first time took place in the fall and featured the NFL, NBA, NHL and football and the college basketball. Even so, Craig Mucklow, commercial director of Caesars Sportsbook, said the handful of World Cup bets exceeded his expectations in the semi-finals.
“We were happy that the United States made progress, even though winning against Iran was painful,” Mucklow said. “I was happy, no complaints.”
Overall, however, interest in football betting still lags far behind the NFL in the United States, for example. Mucklow said the betting handle on the World Cup final could have come closer to the amount bet on the Arizona Cardinals–Denver Broncos game, which was the lowest NFL game of the day.
Everything and nothing
• college basketball: Louisville beat Western Kentucky Wednesday as a 7.5 point underdog. It was the Cardinals’ first win of the season and ended an 0-9 ATS streak to start the year. Louisville was the first team to go 0-9 ATS in the last 30 seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
• College football: The total plus/minus for the month of December. 31 Music City Bowl between Iowa and Kentucky is 31.5, which would be the lowest of any bowl since 2000, according to ESPN Stats & Information.
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