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NFL Week 16 Bets - Cowboys vs. NFL Eagles Week 16 Coverage; time gives brunettes an edge

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The NFL betting market has seen more volatility this week than any other week this season. Winter storms and sub-freezing temperatures across the country are preparing to create extreme conditions for some football matches.

Seven outdoor games are expected to have extremely low temperatures which will be made worse by wind chill, creating arctic elements ranging from 10 to minus 20 degrees. Those games could also involve six reserve quarterbacks, which only adds to the unknown and creates a weaker market that has bettors more willing to move their numbers throughout the week.

“It’s kind of a guessing game. You can’t just rely on power odds,” SuperBook bettor Jeff Sherman told ESPN, referring to the difficulty of posting odds for games with unique weather. “We will absolutely discard a number if we respect the punter.”

We are programmed to believe that the house always wins. This is certainly the case with the casino floor, given the indisputable mathematics of dice, a roulette wheel or a deck of cards. Sports are not as clean as these table games, but the advantage usually lies in sports betting.

However, when a game has more variables like weird weather and key injuries, the house doesn’t have its usual edge. These games, like bowls, involve so much uncertainty that they essentially become apples and oranges when compared to a conventional game with healthy rosters and normal time.

“It’s not foolproof, but if you beat the market you can have an edge,” professional bettor Chuck Edel told ESPN, also sharing that he pays an assistant to track the weather for every college and NFL game. . The people who get the information first, whether it’s injuries or weather conditions, are going to be in a much better position. And if you do your job, you can always step out of the number and play the other side. [if the weather forecast changes].”

This week has seven games with totals in the 30s, which is the most since 2011. Most totals have already moved significantly. For example, the Saints-Browns game opened at 38.5 and the money took the market to 32, which is the lowest total in the NFL since 2008.

Numbers you need to know

What a crazy week for this long-awaited duel between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 47). Dallas missed its end of the bargain by losing to Jacksonville last Sunday, and now MVP contender Jalen hurts came out with an injury for the Eagles. total disappointment.

However, all tickets are cash the same and now we need to find a betting advantage. Any statistical reference is difficult because QB backup Gardner Minshew takes off. However, teams 9-1 or better that are at least 3-point underdogs are 4-16-4 ATS and 2-22 straight in the Super Bowl era. Essentially, the betting market is often right this late in the season. However, Minshew is the fly in the ointment, but Dallas was a 2-point favorite before news of Hurts’ injury surfaced.

It’s not a great game for me, but I’ll score with Dallas. Minshew is a capable backup, but he’s not an NFL starter. On top of that, Hurts is an outstanding quarterback and does a lot for this team. His absence will be felt more than the point spread adjustment. As long as the Cowboys approach this game with appropriate intensity and focus despite Hurts’ absence, America Team should cover against the American quarterback, the mustachioed Minshew.

Favorite parts

New Orleans Saints to Cleveland Browns (-3, 32)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland

It might be the coldest game of the weekend, thanks to 30mph winds with gusts of up to 60mph. There is also potential for a few centimeters of snow. Guess we’ll get a hefty dose Taysom Hill at quarterback for offensively contested New Orleans, which has seen four consecutive games go under. Deshaun Watson is gradually getting rusty, but this Browns offense will still rely on the ground game in those elements. Also, WR Chris Olave came out for the saints. I’m leaning under 32, but my favorite game is Cleveland because I’m going to knock a team out of the dome in these insane conditions.

Choose: Browns -3

Atlanta Falcons to Baltimore Ravens (-6.5, 34.5)
Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore

This is another scenario of a dome team having to endure brutal cold conditions. Falcons also start rookie quarterback Desmond Cavalier, who will make his second career start after passing for 97 yards last week. Atlanta is already a heavy offense, and that fits well with Baltimore, who will also throw a backup QB in Tyler Huntley. However, he might be limited, as he is nursing a shoulder injury. Also, after losing last week in Cleveland, John Harbaugh said he didn’t want to drop out of the race. I’ll take the underside and hope the Falcons defense, which ranks second in efficiency, can do enough.

Picks: Under 34.5, Ravens -0.5 in 6-point teaser leg

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7.5, 40.5) to Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona

Now we know all about Tampa’s woes. At 3-10-1 ATS, the Bucs have the worst coverage percentage in the entire NFL. The best remedy for that might be a third-string quarterback. Product of Penn State Trace McSorley He’ll be making his first career start at Arizona, and while he’s at home, that’s a tough call. The Bucs should get out of their funk and at least win the game, although Todd Bowles certainly looks lost too often. But Arizona coach Cliff Kingsbury isn’t exactly locked in, so I’ll take Tampa on a teaser.

Pick: Bucs -1.5 in 6-point teaser leg

Las Vegas Raiders to Pittsburgh Steelers (-2, 38)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh

Is this Raiders team really going to enter Pittsburgh in single-digit temperatures and beat a Steelers team that will pay tribute to legend Franco Harris, who passed away this week? If they do, then hats off to them. However, I think the Raiders are sloppy and unruly, which is why they lost so many big leads. I expect Pittsburgh to run all over the Vegas defense this week and pick up a win.

Pick: Steelers -2

Denver Broncos (-3, 36.5) to Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA

Russell Wilson it is expected to return, and that is enough for me to put points on the road. The Rams are a shell of themselves with Mayfield Baker extremely limited. Additionally, the Rams announced that they had closed Aaron Donald for the rest of the season. Denver’s offensive woes are well documented, but the defense ranks third in efficiency. The Rams have a clear advantage as a coach, but I was impressed with how the Broncos performed last weekend and hope they bring similar effort and intensity to Los Angeles.

Pick: Broncos -3

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