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New York and LA meet the CDC's criteria for masking in public. How much will masks help this winter?

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With the spread of Covid at high levels in New York and Los Angeles, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now recommending people in those areas wear masks indoors and on public transportation.

The CDC’s recommendation is based on three metrics: new Covid cases, hospital capacity, and hospital admissions. New York City and Los Angeles County recorded about 3,200 daily cases Thursday, and hospital beds in their respective states are more than 80% full, according to Data of the Department of Health and Social Services.

Some cities are also asking for masks in schools in anticipation of rising cases this winter.

The Philadelphia School District announced Wednesday that students and staff will be required to wear masks indoors for two weeks in January to slow transmission after the holidays. The New York City Department of Education published a letter this week strongly encouraging students and staff to wear a properly fitted mask indoors. And in Boston, parent advocacy group BPS Families for Covid Safety is urging the city school district to impose a 10-day mask mandate.

The number of people buying masks in the United States has also increased over the past month, said Neil Saunders, managing director of retail at GlobalData, a consulting and research group.

Much of this was initially tied to increased travel and gatherings around Thanksgiving. However, part of the current increase could be due to growing health concerns around Covid and flu,” Saunders said in an email.

After three years of Covid, however, experts have acknowledged that few people are inclined to wear masks as often as they once did in public spaces.

“The reality is that most people find masks uncomfortable, so they will choose” when to wear them, said Dr. Stephen Luby, professor of medicine at Stanford University.

“We’re at a societal place where people don’t think the inconvenience of wearing a mask is worth it in terms of the level of protection they gain, or in terms of the level of protection they give more generally to the society.” he added.

Masking effectiveness is relatively unchanged since last December, when the original version of the omicron variant became dominant, said Linsey Marr, a Virginia Tech professor who studies aerosol transmission.

“The masks will work the same against omicron and really any other version of SARS-CoV-2 that we’re going to see because the virus is still the same size,” she said.

But as people tire of masks, studies examining their effectiveness have stalled, said Laura Kwong, assistant professor of environmental health sciences at the University of California, Berkeley School of Public Health.

“We don’t have clear studies that assess mask effectiveness for alpha versus delta versus omicron, and certainly not in the omicron subvariants,” she said.

Marr said KN95 or N95 masks remain the most protective option because they block 95% of airborne virus particles. A CDC study of mask wearers in California last year found that KN95 or N95 masks reduced a person’s chance of testing positive for Covid by 83%, compared to 66% for surgical masks and 56% for face masks fabric (although results from fabric masks were not statistically significant).

“Any mask will be more protective than no mask, but at this point if you bother wearing a mask, you might as well wear a KN95 or an N95,” Marr said.

Disease experts recommend masks even for people who are up to date on their Covid vaccines.

By preventing infections, masks can reduce a person’s long-term Covid risk, regardless of their vaccination status, Luby said.

Kwong noted that masks also prevent people from spreading Covid to the elderly or immunocompromised. At Kwong and Luby’s to research In Bangladesh, it has been shown that when 42% of a population wear masks, it can reduce Covid symptoms by 35% in people aged 60 and over.

Kwong said a tip for deciding when to wear a mask is to consider how close you are to the people around you: “Anywhere where people are breathing, talking, singing and where you can reach out and touch someone , it is a crowded space.

Marr said it’s reasonable to weigh the benefits of socializing against the risk of getting sick.

“If it’s a holiday party, you get a lot out of it by socializing with people you know,” she said. There is less to be gained by unmasking in the metro.

But Luby said he always wears a mask in public, even when others around him aren’t wearing it.

“I often find myself in this situation – I’m the only person in the room wearing a mask. But on the other hand, I know I’m protecting myself and I know I’m protecting my family when I do this, so I’m willing to put up with a little social approval.”

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