Bowling Green Odds vs New Mexico State
Monday afternoon’s Quick Lane Bowl features two teams making surprise appearances in the bowl.
Vegas put Bowling Green and New Mexico State’s win totals below 5 at the start of the season, so I don’t think this will be a game where a team doesn’t get excited about it. to participate in a bowling match. Look for these two teams to bring their A-game.
They’ll want to end the season on a high since those bowl games are certainly not guaranteed.
New Mexico State hasn’t had a bowling game since 2017 and has been the picture of a dismal program ever since. Former TCU interim head coach Jerry Kill did an incredible job in his first season as Aggies head coach, leading a program that hadn’t finished better than 3-10 since 2018 to a bowl appearance.
New Mexico State presented him as a well-respected program builder, and he lived up to expectations this season.
Not to be outdone, Bowling Green hasn’t had a winning record since the 2015 season, when it was knocked out of the GoDaddy Bowl by Georgia Southern.
Scot Loeffler took over the program in 2019 and is making his first bowl appearance with the Falcons this season. Although his turnaround wasn’t as quick, he did a great job starting to rebuild this Falcons program.
Not to be outdone, the Aggies come in at 126th in our Action Network power ratings.
How are they eligible for the bowl? Finishing the season against two teams from FCS and UMass certainly helps the record. However, give credit where credit is due – the Aggies upset Liberty and obtained a waiver from the NCAA to secure a toilet berth.
While the Falcons are on a fast offense, the Aggies like to take things slow, ranking 96th in seconds per game.
They’re also a pretty brutal offense, ranking in the bottom 30 in offensive pass rate and havoc allowed, which could be a big deal with Brooks on the other side of the line.
However, they do have one bright spot: their Points for Opportunity, where they rank 37th nationally.
When they get the ball in the 40 against Bowling Green, they should be taking touchdowns instead of just field goals.
The big question is how many trips inside the 40-yard line will the Aggies get? With Brooks living in their backfield, that might not be much.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Aggies rank slightly below average but respectable overall. They rank just below average for Hit Rate Allowed, Points Per Opportunity Allowed, and Havoc.
However, a below average defense may be enough to end a potentially anemic Bowling Green offense.
If the Aggies can pressure Bowling Green quarterback Matt McDonald enough to shake him off, they should be able to keep the Falcons on the field. However, New Mexico State struggles to rush the passer, ranking 122nd in passing rush.
McDonald has excelled in places where he has been under duress, and with a clean pocket he should be able to perform at a high level. Without that pressure, this Aggies defense will struggle to get off the field.
The Falcons come into this game ranked 117th in our Action Network Power Ratings. They made that bowl game by pulling off big upsets against Marshall, Central Michigan and Toledo – all of whom were favorites by 6.5 points or more.
BGSU executes a quick offense, clocking 25.19 seconds per game (34th in the nation). Unfortunately, that’s about all it ranks above average in. This Falcons team finishes in the bottom 10 when it comes to offense Success rateOffensive points for opportunity and ravaged permit.
However, despite those horrible forward metrics, this offense still found ways to put points on the board with a 42-against outing. Toledo and a 34-point out against Central Michigan.
McDonald played the best football of his career in those two games, especially against Toledo (not counting the FCS competition).
Keeping him clean will be crucial for the Falcons’ offensive hopes, as he’s been sacked three or more times in each of their last seven games. Bowling Green’s final game of the season against Ohio was also the worst game of his career, as he threw three interceptions and finished with a pfft rating of 37.9.
If McDonald can stay off the turf, he’s usually got the ball, and that attack should be able to work its way down. The big question is whether or not he can score touchdowns.
Based on the performance of the attack this season, I would go for the field goals.
On the defensive side of the ball, the Falcons are much more respectable, as they particularly excel at creating havoc for opposing attacks.
The reason for that is PFF All-American defensive lineman Karl Brooks, who ranks in the top 10 nationally for solo sacks. Brooks will play in the bowling game and likely live in the Aggies’ backfield, looking to cement his status as one of the most productive defensive linemen in this draft class.
Outside of this Havoc creation, Bowling Green State’s defense has struggled in other aspects — especially when opposing offenses get into its 40. The Falcons are allowing 4.1 points per opportunity, putting them 100th overall. national.
This could be an area where the Aggies exploit the Falcons.
Analysis of the game between Bowling Green and New Mexico State
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between New Mexico State and Bowling Green:
Bowling Green Offense vs. New Mexico State Defense
Bowling Green Defense Against New Mexico State Infringement
Pace of play / Other
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| PFF tackle | 107 | 43 |
| PFF cover | 87 | 80 |
| SP+ special teams | 113 | 96 |
| Seconds per game | 26.4 (63) | 28.8 (111) |
| Peak rate | 48.8% (99) | 59.9% (20) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, PS+, Focus on professional football and SportSource Analytics
New Mexico State vs Bowling Green Picks and Predictions
Although both of these teams rank below average in many key categories, I think this will have enough mayhem to be an extremely fun watch.
However, I will give the advantage to this Bowling Green team.
Brooks has been the X factor all season, and I think he’ll cement his status as one of the best defensive linemen in this draft with an All-American performance against New Mexico State.
If Bowling Green can get an early lead and force the Aggies to get the ball in the air, I think they’ll rack up the points in a flash from three outs and turnovers.
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