The DC area will see its most significant effects from this extreme weather pattern after the cold front passes behind the Great Lakes storm on Friday. Temperatures will drop below freezing and winds will roar, and we can’t rule out flurries or showers. Washingtonians will experience the coldest air of the season so far.
A small winter mix possible early Thursday
We could see some winter precipitation in the area just as the storm system moves through the area on Thursday, provided it is early enough in the day. Even if it did, any sleet, snow or freezing rain would likely be brief and concentrated west of the Interstate 95 corridor.
With temperatures mostly above freezing as precipitation arrives, the winter potential of this system ahead looks even less threatening than last Friday’s storm, which produced mostly rain in the region ( apart from some freezing rain in the west and northwest).
The milder temperatures are primarily the result of high pressure sliding off the northeast coast ahead of the storm’s arrival, helping to create a warmer wind flowing out of the ocean. The center of the storm is also expected to be stronger than last week’s, which should help produce abundant and relatively warm southerly winds ahead of the Arctic front that won’t arrive until late Friday.
The Baltimore/Washington Weather Service office has western counties in our area under a slight risk of wintry weather Thursday and Friday, but no risk in the immediate area. Anything that could significantly disrupt winter weather should be confined to mountainous areas to the west.
After picking up about 2 inches of rain at the end of last week, another inch or two of rain looks set to arrive at the end of this week.
The heaviest precipitation is most likely between Thursday late afternoon and Friday morning. There could even be a rumble of thunder Thursday evening or Friday given the heat and humidity moving north ahead of Friday’s cold front.
Here’s what some recent model runs show for precipitation, both in DC and in the bracketed local area range.
- European ECMWF – 0.9 inches (0.75-1.5 inches)
- American GFS – 0.9 inches (0.75 to 1.5 inches)
- Canadian GEM – 1.2 inches (1 to 1.5 inches)
Washington saw 2.41 inches of rain in December compared to an average of 3.41 inches for the entire month. The next storm is expected to bring the city near and above normal for precipitation in December.
How many temperatures will drop and when
Friday is shaping up to be a wild day for local temperatures. Readings rising from the mid-50s to around 60 look a good bet east of Blue Ridge in the morning, as the storm’s center swirls across the Great Lakes and a strong cold front approaches the region.
Current weather modeling suggests the front passes Washington at noon and temperatures immediately drop rapidly in its wake. Numbers could drop to freezing and below zero in western parts of the region during the afternoon, then in DC and east around sunset.
As cold air rushes into the region, it will cool quickly enough that any precipitation left behind the front will turn to snow. There probably won’t be many falls at this point, but flurries, flurries, or a brief snow squall could blow. Under the right conditions, a coating or the like could fall off in places.
On Friday evening, the region is looking for wind chills at least as cold as the low single digits locally and below zero in northern Maryland, as well as an uplift to our west.
Winds can briefly blow near 50 mph as the cold front moves into Friday, which can lead to downed trees and power outages given the wet ground. Gusts of 30 to 40 mph could be common in the evening. Winds will likely drop to over 20 by Friday evening.
Given gusts of 20-30 mph on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, wind chills are likely to remain brutal through the weekend. Single-digit numbers will persist on Saturday, with teenagers more likely on Sunday.
Coldest Christmas Eve and Christmas Day in decades
On Christmas Eve morning, low temperatures will reach the 1920s at 20°C without rising much during the day. The afternoon highs of the mid-20s to near 30s seem like a decent target for now.
It will be even colder on Christmas morning, with lows ranging from around 10 to 20. Afternoon readings may be a little less frosty than Saturday, but the area is expected to remain at 32 or below. below for a second consecutive day, with highs. in the high 20s. and low 30s.
Average temperatures for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be 47 high and 33 low in the city.
The last time both were in the 30s was in 2004. To find the last time temperatures didn’t go above freezing on either day, we look back to 1999. Currently, 2022 appears to be the coldest for the two-day holiday since 1989, when highs reached 23 on Christmas Eve and 29 on Christmas Day.
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