Kansas State vs. Alabama Odds
Alabama and Kansas State will travel to New Orleans to compete in the Sugar Bowl on Saturday.
Alabama comes into this game after a disappointing 10-2 season, but riding a three-game winning streak. Despite Crimson Tide’s typical “College Football Playoff or bust” mindset, two key players on both sides of the ball decided to play instead of retire.
On the betting side, the Tide finished 5-7 ATS and lost in seven games this season.
Kansas State enters this game after a 10-3 season and on a four-game winning streak, including a win over TCU in the Big 12 Championship.
How should we bet on this game between the Big 12 champions and a perennial college football powerhouse? Let’s dive into it.
In his fourth season with the program, Chris Klieman’s Wildcats broke through and won a conference championship against previously undefeated TCU.
Behind versatile running back Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State averaged 33.2 points per game and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt while posting a 43% completion rate and 4.28 points per opportunity.
The Wildcat offense is averaging 27.2 passing attempts per game and 210.5 passing yards per game. Will Howard became the team’s starter when Nebraska transfer Adrian Martinez suffered an injury mid-season and has led the way in every game since Nov. 1. 12 tilt with Baylor.
Howard completed 61.6% of his passes for an average of 8.7 yards per attempt. As a team, the Wildcats have a 42% completion rate and average 3.3 20-yard passes per game.
Kansas State relies heavily on the running game, averaging 40.9 rushing attempts per game. Vaughn leads the way with 1,425 rushing yards on 271 attempts and was instrumental in the team’s rushing completion rate of 45%.
This K-State offensive line is averaging 3.29 Line Yards per attempt and yielding a Stuff Rate of 16.2%. This unit also allows defenses to wreak havoc on only 13% of plays.
A key thing to watch is the pace used by Kansas State. The Wildcats are averaging 27.8 seconds per game, which ranks them 98th nationally.
Defense is a key strength of this team, as well is averaging 20.1 points per game and 5.3 yards per attempt. The Wildcats allow opponents a 38% success rate and give up 3.33 points per opportunity.
Their biggest weakness in defense is their inability to generate havoc. K-State produces Havoc on only 15% of games, which is good for 95th in FBS.
It’s rare for a Nick Saban team to finish the regular season with two losses and not appear in the SEC Championship game, but here we are.
Despite the Crimson Tide falling short of the conference championship, they still averaged 40.8 points per game and 6.8 yards per game.
However, Alabama saw 13 players enter the transfer portal, including wide receivers Traeshon Holden and Jojo Earle, as well as starting guard Javion Cohen.
In a rather surprising move, Bryce Young chose to star in this ball game. Alabama is averaging 34.7 passing attempts per game and 278.3 passing yards per game, so Young’s presence will be important for the Tide.
Young completed 64.1% of his passes and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt. As a team, Alabama owns a 48% pass Success rate and made an average of 3.67 passes of at least 20 meters per game.
Alabama’s rushing offense is led by Jahmyr Gibbs and Jase McClellan, who each eclipsed 600 rushing yards during the season. The Tide as a team averaged 5.6 rushing yards per attempt and had a 47% completion rate.
Their offensive line averaged 2.95 lineal yards per attempt, gave up a 19.3 percent jam rate, and allowed defenses to create ravaged on only 14% of games.
In another shocking move, star pass thrower Will Anderson opted to play in the bowl game. Anderson, who ranks second on Alabama’s all-time sack list, will put a lot of pressure on the Wildcats’ passing game if their running game can’t get going.
As a team, Alabama is allowing an average of 18.0 points per game and 4.5 yards per game. It allows for a 38% success rate, 3.58 points per opportunity, and generates havoc on 19% of games, as all three brands rank in the top 50 nationally.
Analysis of the game between Kansas State and Alabama
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between the state of Kansas and Alabama:
Alabama Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
Kansas State Offense vs. Alabama Defense
Pace of play / Other
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| PFF tackle | 9 | 63 |
| PFF cover | 9 | 50 |
| SP+ special teams | 1 2 | 34 |
| Seconds per game | 26.0 (55) | 27.8 (98) |
| Peak rate | 50.5% (91) | 60.0% (19) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, PS+, Focus on professional football and SportSource Analytics
Kansas State vs Alabama Prediction, Picks
The crowd and the sharps seem to be mostly aligned in this match. As of this writing, 67% of the bets and 66% of the money back Alabama.
In a typical bowl season, this would be a game where Alabama’s motivation would be a key issue for the team after falling short of their season goals. However, the presence of both Young and Anderson hampers this argument. The game intentions of the two stars took the line from -4 to -6.5.
The line movement is intimidating and there’s a good chance that Young and Anderson will be taken out of the game early, but that line hasn’t hit the differential talent of these teams.
I put the points with Alabama and I would make it to 10.
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