2022 Hawaii Bowl Preview
San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee Odds
Middle Tennessee and San Diego State travel to the island on Christmas Eve to do battle in the 2022 EasyPost Hawaii Bowl.
Middle Tennessee is coming off a three-game winning streak after needing to win two of its last three games to reach bowl eligibility. The Blue Raiders have one win over Miami on the road this season, but their other six wins have come against far inferior competition.
San Diego State has won five of its final seven games of the season with its only two losses to Mountain West champion Fresno State and Air Force.
The Aztecs’ defense has been one of the best in the group of five, so we’ll see if they can stop the Blue Raiders’ air raid overrun attack.
Aztec offense
San Diego State’s offense showed some flashes of greatness late in the season.
He had a combined 77 points against San Jose State and New Mexico thanks to stellar performances from quarterback Jalen Mayden, who took the starting job in Week 6.
Mayden is averaging 8.9 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns in seven starts. However, his PFF pass mark sits at 71.4 and he has just five big throws against 12 turnover-worthy plays.
Mayden will be key in this game as Middle Tennessee’s weak defense comes in their secondary.
To make matters even more complicated for the Blue Raiders defense, Mayden is also a great threat on the ground.
San Diego State features an intense offense, running the ball on 59.3 percent of its offensive plays.
He’s struggled to run the ball all season, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. However, he has big-play ability, ranking 43rd in explosive running.
Aztec Defense
The main reason San Diego State has won three of its last four games just to reach bowl eligibility is because of its defense. The Aztecs played an incredible ball, allowing just 5.0 yards per play while ranking 13th in EPA/Play and 12th in Finishing workouts permit.
In their final nine games of the season, only two teams have scored more than 14 points against them: Fresno State and San Jose State.
The Aztecs pass rush will be a huge advantage in this game. San Diego State has the 22nd highest pass-rushing rating, per PFF, and ranks in the top 35 in sack percentage.
Middle Tennessee has one of the worst pass-blocking offensive lines in college football, so SDSU should find ways to put a ton of pressure on Cunningham.
Middle Tennessee is a passing offense that will play directly into the hands of San Diego State. The Aztecs rank 31st in degree of PFF coverage and 33rd in pass explosiveness allowed.
Blue Raiders Offense
Middle Tennessee is a happy offense that throws the ball 55.5% of the time. Quarterback Chase Cunningham was pretty bad though. His pfft the pass mark is 65.6, and he’s averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt to go along with 15 big throws and 18 turnover-worthy plays.
The main problem has been his offensive line, which ranks 119th in PFF pass blocking rating. This translated to Cunningham playing from a crowded pocket on 33% of his dropbacks.
Middle Tennessee also struggled to run the ball, as they average just 3.3 yards per carry (113th in FBS) and rank 98th in rushing. Success rate and 95th in EPA/Rush.
It’s going to be a long Christmas Eve for the Blue Raider attack.
Blue Raiders Defense
Middle Tennessee’s defense has been outstanding this season, ranking 26th in EPA/Play Allowed.
Overall this season, Middle Tennessee has been very good against the run. The Blue Raiders rank 48th in rushing completion rate allowed, 27th in defensive yards and 20th in EPA/Rush allowed.
It will be huge in this game with San Diego State running a heavy offense.
The weakness of Middle Tennessee’s defense is in its secondary, which ranks 91st in pass completion rate and 81st in assists explosiveness permit.
However, the Blue Raiders are eighth ravaged, while San Diego State is 120th in Havoc Allowed. Additionally, the Aztecs have one of the worst passing attacks in the country.
Analysis of the game between San Diego State and Middle Tennessee
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between San Diego State and Middle Tennessee:
San Diego State Offense Against Middle Tennessee Defense
Middle Tennessee Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
Pace of play / Other
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| PFF tackle | 16 | 115 |
| PFF cover | 44 | 31 |
| SP+ special teams | 36 | 15 |
| Seconds per game | 23.3 (13) | 29.6 (122) |
| Peak rate | 47.4% (105) | 59.3% (22) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, PS+, Focus on professional football and SportSource Analytics.
How to bet San Diego State vs. Middle Tennessee
The line on this game has shifted drastically.
San Diego State opened as a 1.5 point underdog and almost immediately got a bet down to -7 in most books, so the value on the Aztecs was gone.
The pace of this game is going to be very interesting with Middle Tennessee playing at lightning speed and San Diego State playing at a snail’s pace.
Given the poor matchup of both offenses against the strength of each opposing defense – as well as the fact that both offenses rank outside the top 100 Finishing Drives – I think we’ll have a low-scoring game on our hands.
I only have 44.8 points projected for the Hawaii Bowl, so I like the lower value at 48.5.
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