Giants at Vikings: Stats and insights from the Giants' 27-24 loss

the New York Giants couldn’t quite complete the underdogs’ victory over the Minnesota Vikings on the road Saturday afternoon.

It was an exciting and hard-fought match that felt like a real back-and-forth competition. Both of these teams are used to playing in high pressure situations and almost all of their games this season have been decided by a score.

Games that are so close – and so exciting – often have details that slip through the cracks of our memory. Let’s take a look at the game’s stats and analysis to see what details might have gotten lost in the adrenaline haze that colored the final three minutes of the match.

games of the game

The win odds chart for this game was absolutely wild, with massive swings in win odds during the second half.

It looked like a much tighter game than the chart suggested, largely because it factored in that the Vikings were favored by 4.5 points early in the game. During the match, it looked like both teams were about to take control and pull away. And that may be what those jagged jumps in win probability reflect. But, as we can see from now on, they always came back, neither team could really separate themselves from the other.

Added highest win probability

The biggest play of the game in terms of win probability was, of course, Greg Joseph’s winning field goal. That kick was worth 35 points in win probability, and all Joseph had to do was break his previous career five yards with the pressure at an all-time high.

The second biggest play of the game came almost immediately before Joseph’s game-winning kick when Landon Collins sacked Kirk Cousins.

It was one of the most mystifying plays in the game as Cousins ​​held onto the ball for a subjective eternity as he looked for an outlet. Rather than throw the ball away to stop the clock and preserve yardage, Cousins ​​took a devastating sack that took the Vikings from a 71% chance of winning to 50. Of course, his very next game was a 17-yard pass to Justin Jefferson, who clawed back most of that lost win probability.

Added most anticipated points

The two biggest plays of the game had identical expected -5.6 points added (or rather, expected 5.6 points lost) for the Giants.

These were, unsurprisingly, Daniel Jones’ interception and Daniel Bellinger’s fumble. These two plays brought the Giants’ attack to a halt and were responsible for some big swings in the flow of the game. Thankfully, the Giants defense got back on the offense and those two turnovers only totaled three points for the Vikings. The fumble (eventually) turned into a field goal, while the interception eventually turned into a turnover on the downs (more on that in a moment).

The next two biggest plays in terms of expected points were Saquon Barkley’s touchdown (+5.0 points expected) and Justin Jefferson’s 17-yard touchdown reception (+3.5 points expected).

The fourth trials told the story

One of the stories in this game that might not get much press is how both teams played in high leverage situations. Three pieces in particular stand out as being a particularly defining game.

First was Kirk Cousins’ pass to Justin Jefferson in fourth-and-second with 9:01 left in the fourth quarter. The Vikings failed to convert on this play after Adam Thielen took the wrong route and pulled cover to Justin Jefferson and tightened the catch window. There were discussions about whether the Vikings made the right call being aggressive there, but the odds suggested trying to convert fourth down was the right call.

Of course, whether attempting a deep shot was the right way to go is another matter altogether. We don’t know if the attempt would have succeeded had it been properly executed. But even so, it’s one of those calls that’s advertised as “bold” if it works and “dumb” if it doesn’t.

Next is the blocked punt to put the Vikings on the Giants 29-yard line.

The Giants obviously made the right decision to throw there, because trying to convert a fourth-and-4 from your own 23-yard line is the kind of thing you only do if you’re absolutely desperate.

Adding 2.5 points to your winning odds is no small feat, and Jamie Gillan had some impressive punts in this game. He has the leg to really turn the field around and the Giants defense played this game really well.

What the model did not predict was the impact of a blocked punt.

In this case, that failure proved potentially disastrous for the Giants. Minnesota had a 68% chance of winning when Daniel Jones’ pass to Isaiah Hodgins fell incomplete on third down. After the blocked punt, however, Minnesota had an 80% chance of winning — a 12-point swing on what should have been routine play.

Kirk Cousins ​​would find TJ Hockenson for a touchdown five plays after that blocked punt.

Finally, we come to the Giants’ fourth and second from the Vikings’ 27-yard line on the drive that follows. Going forward was an absolutely easy decision, as the Giants were down eight points and a field goal would probably have been the same as a surrender.

Again, the model ignores the offense not only in converting the first down, but in scoring the touchdown. In this case, a 3.6 point win probability turned into a whopping 15 point win probability, dropping the odds of winning Vikings from 93% to 78%.

So while the decision to go for it was a no-brainer, what would have been a big game turned into a game that absolutely would have been “The Game of the Game” in almost any other game.

It’s a mark of the savagery of this game that it was only the sixth biggest game of the game.

Defense Credit

The Giants trailed their defense in their win over Washington Commanders a week ago. There’s a pretty good argument that they wouldn’t have been able to win this week without their defense playing either.

The Giants had four sacks and 11 quarterback hits in the game. The Giants’ front four, along with Wink Martindale’s blitz plans, generated constant pressure on Kirk Cousins.

Of course, the Vikings defense also put pressure on Daniel Jones. They recorded three sacks, a forced fumble and 11 quarterback hits.

It’s actually quite remarkable how similarly both defensive fronts played this game.

The effect of pressure on Cousins ​​was noticeable when we step back and compare to his stats from the season.

For starters, Cousins’ average throw was 2.72 seconds, down from his season average of 2.82. While a tenth of a second doesn’t seem like a lot, it’s significant at the NFL level – especially since Cousins ​​has had several plays where he held the ball longer than he should have. from.

Cousins ​​was also forced to rely on shorter throws than he has done all season. His predicted average pass was more than half a yard shorter against the Giants than his season average (7.1 to 7.7 predicted aerial yards), while his average completion was 1.4 yards shorter (4.6 to 6 aerial meters converted).

The Giants have also done a much better job of containing the run than they did a week ago.

Dalvin Cook still had a good day, averaging 4.6 yards per carry. But that’s still a far cry from Brian Robinson’s 7.1 average. Predictably, he did most of his damage against the perimeter of the Giants defense. That’s still a big improvement for one of the worst running defenses in the NFL.

It’s not a controversial statement to say that the Giants defense was overwhelmed at the end of this game. However, we have to commend the defense for doing everything they did to contain a good Vikings offense.