CNN
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The next time you walk around a full parking lot, try to remember what you saw there just a few years ago. Things are different now. There are a lot more electric vehicles and it’s not just Teslas anymore either.
“It’s not your eyes that deceive you,” said Matt Degen, editor at Cox Automotive, a company that owns a number of automotive-related websites and businesses. “For a very long time, the majority of EVs on the road were Teslas, and they still get the lion’s share of sales, but they’re not the only game in town anymore.”
Electric vehicles accounted for 5.6% of all new vehicles sold last year, according to the Kelley Blue Book. That might not seem like a lot, but as recently as 2019 that figure was just 1.4%. Based on the experience of other global markets — particularly Norway — a 5% market share appears to be a significant tipping point for wider adoption, said BloombergNEF researcher Corey Cantor. Other markets, such as China and Europe as a whole, showed similar trends, according to data provided by BloombergNEF. Bloomberg includes plug-in hybrids in its tally of “electric vehicles,” but a large majority are purely battery-powered models.
It’s unclear exactly why 5% seems to mark the point where EV sales really take off. It could be that this marks the level at which something starts to feel normal. Hyundai’s overall market share in the United States, for example, is about the same as the market share for electric vehicles, according to Cox Automotive, and buying a Hyundai doesn’t seem like anything weird or unusual. The same goes for electric vehicles: it is no longer rare to see them on the roads, which makes it easier to consider getting one.
Now, electric vehicles just need to become easier to buy.
“I think now the demand is definitely there,” Cantor said. “It’s just a supply issue, with automakers not being able to ship enough.”
The global auto industry is facing parts supply issues that have slowed production of all kinds of vehicles. But a number of electric models have also proven popular beyond what their manufacturers were prepared for.
The Mustang Mach-E, which hit the market in 2021, was the first EV to take a noticeable chunk of Tesla’s still-dominant EV market share. Ford is still struggling to produce enough to meet demand. Each of the over 150,000 Mach-E this Ford has produced so far has been built to specific customer order, with none made just to fill dealer lots, said Darren Palmer, vice president of electric vehicle programs at Ford.
“We could sell it at least two or three times over,” he said. “We held back from launching more global markets because we are completely exhausted.”
Since then, Ford has also released the F-150 Lightning, an all-electric version of America’s best-selling F-Series pickup truck. Ford is already expanding the new plant in Dearborn, Michigan, where the Lightning is built. , pouring more concrete to expand the floor space even while the trucks are being assembled inside.
The variety of electric vehicles available for sale has also increased.
In 2019, there were 11 EV models selling more than 1,000 units, according to Kelley Blue Book. This year there were 26. Hyundai and Kia, who already had electric vehicles on the market – although not very exciting – released the radically designed Hyundai Ioniq 5 and the Kia EV6. Rivian has rolled out the R1T truck and the R1S SUV. And General Motors saw a huge slew of sales for its Bolt EV and Bolt EUV once they returned to the market following a battery fire recall. Luxury brands like Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Genesis and Volvo have also added electric vehicles to the market.
“There are different segments, there are different price points,” Degen said. “It’s not just having to spend $50,000 or $100,000 on an EV anymore.”
Cheaper electric vehicles are also improving with longer ranges and faster charging, said Tony Quiroga, editor of Car and Driver. The Hyundai Ioniq 5, which has a starting price of around $41,000, earned Car and Driver’s Electric Vehicle of the Year price this year.
“It will go from 10% to 80% on a fast charger in 18 minutes,” Quiroga said, “which only luxury brands do.”
The even greater variety of EVs hitting the market next year, combined with the easing of production issues that have hampered overall auto production this year, should help EV sales climb even higher – well there are some unknowns.
Take gas prices, for example. Soaring costs for filling up at the pump earlier this year “made people realize that [electric] vehicles even if they didn’t think about it before,” said Jessica Caldwell, industry analyst at Edmunds.com.
But petrol prices have also fallen significantly in recent months, which could reduce the urgency some drivers feel to go electric in 2023.
The law’s impact on reducing inflation is also unclear. The law, passed this year, changes the rules under which electric vehicles are eligible for consumption tax credits. It imposes limits on the price of the vehicle and the income of the buyer; There are also requirements to promote domestic production of electric vehicles and their batteries.
The key question is not just how many electric vehicle models will be eligible, but which ones, BloombergNEF’s Cantor said.
“So if a Tesla Model 3 and the Chevy Bolt, and the Tesla Model Y, and a Ford Mach-E and an F-150 Lightning are all eligible, those are high-volume vehicles,” he said. .
Given their already high popularity and sales, the incentive rules could help boost electric vehicle sales significantly.
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