I saw a lot of mixed opinions on Derek Carr with his bench signaling the potential end of his Raiders career.
They range from…he can be a top-10 QB and he’s been held back by the Raiders’ defense his entire career…to…he’s an average QB who’s underperformed this season after the Davante Adams acquisition.
There may be some truth in all of this. One of the first things that came to mind was that he was a good quarterback for almost a decade on a bad team. It reminds me by Matthew Stafford the Lions tenure in some way. So is it possible Carr is leaving the Raiders and following in Stafford’s footsteps?
Here I look at the pros and cons:
Case For
The case for this comparison is built on the striking similarities between Stafford’s time with the Lions and Carr’s with the Raiders.
Both franchisees
Both are the all-time leaders of their respective franchises. Stafford is the Lions’ all-time touchdown pass leader among nearly every other category, and the same can be said for Carr with the Raiders.
0 playoff wins/division titles
Although they racked up numbers for their teams for about a decade, neither won a playoff game or won a division title with their original teams. Stafford was 0-3 in the playoffs with Detroit, which consistently took a backseat to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in the division.
Carr is 0-1 in the playoffs with Las Vegas, who he had to compete with Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in the AFC West.
The worst defense NFL
The Lions and Raiders had two of the worst defenses in the league with these quarterbacks. Detroit had the second worst scoring defense with Stafford from 2009 to 2020. The Raiders have the worst scoring defense in the NFL since Carr was drafted in 2014. In fact, Carr is the least backed QB in history of the NFL in terms of score defense. The Raiders allowed 26.1 PPG on his starts, the worst for any starting QB ever (min. 100 starts).
They’ll also extend one of my favorite trends in the sport this year – 2022 will be the Raiders’ 20th consecutive season in the bottom half of the league on goal defense, the longest such streak since the 1970 NFL. – AFL merger.
Most losses in the NFL
A bad defense will do it to you. Carr has the most losses of any QB since entering the league. Stafford recorded the second most losses of any QB during his career with the Lions (2009-20).
Both led the NFL as fourth-quarter comebacks
Stafford and Carr have always been good for an exciting comeback thanks to productive careers coupled with defenses that rarely let them run away with a lead. Stafford led the NFL in a fourth quarter comeback during his career with the Lions and Carr led the league in that category with the Raiders.
Case against
Stafford is a better overall QB than Carr
Stafford was the No. 1 overall pick in 2009 and Carr was a second-round pick in 2014. Stafford has more arm talent, enough for the Rams were willing to give up two first-round picks to acquire it (and offload Jared Goff contract) in 2021. I doubt Carr has a price anywhere near that.
Coaches and league officials would agree that Stafford is better than Carr, but not by much.
Stafford placed slightly ahead of Carr in both 2021 and 2022 Mike Sando’s annual QB Tiers piece from The Athletic. The levels are the results of a survey of general managers, coaches and executives across the league.
Stafford also ranked sixth in both of ESPN Jeremy Fowler’s top 10 QB rankings in 2021 and 2022, which are derived from a survey of more than 50 league managers, coaches and scouts. Carr was an honorable mention both years, but did not make the top 10.
The numbers would also agree. Carr has never ranked above No. 10 on ESPN’s Total QBR in nine seasons with the Raiders. His average ranking was 19th. Stafford’s average QBR ranking with the Lions was 15th and he was in the top eight in three of his last five seasons in Detroit.
This offseason has proven that Stafford’s plan isn’t easy to follow
Acquiring a veteran quarterback was the hot new plan this offseason after Tom Brady won a superbowl in 2020, and Matthew Stafford won in 2021. The performance of Russell Wilson, matt ryan, Carson Wentz and Mayfield Baker have proven that it’s not such an easy act to repeat and the team may not be as willing to make a big investment in a guy like Carr this offseason.
Carr may not find a landing spot like the Rams
When Stafford signed with the Rams, he was seen as the missing piece that would be an upgrade from Goff, two years after losing him to the Rams. patriots in Super Bowl LIII. Los Angeles had a no. 1 defense and Cooper Kupp, among other attractive pieces. Among logical landing pointsI’m not sure there’s a destination like that for Carr in 2023, although the Jets with their defense, Brece Hall and Garrett Wilsonmight be the closest bet.
Add it all up, and as similar as their careers with the Lions and Raiders have been, respectively, it would take a lot for the stars to line up for Carr like they did for Stafford. The circumstances surrounding their departure from each franchise would also be different. Still, I think a lot of people would be looking for better circumstances for Carr after a decade with the Raiders.
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