the NFC Playoffs Photo begins to focus after the Week 15 games are over. Let’s break down each playoff team and those who still have a decent chance, then paint a picture of what the seven seeds could look like when the NFC Playoffs start next month.
Current seed #1: Philadelphia Eagles
13-1 | @Cowboys | Saints | giants
The Eagles have a 98% chance of being the first seed in the NFC Post-Season Tournament. Another Eagles win will clinch both the No. 1 seed and the NFC East Division title. The Cowboys would have to beat the Eagles next weekend for the slimmest chance of winning their division. Once the Eagles clinch the first seed, they will have no reason to play their starters, even though they will also have a bye week. It can help the giants and hurt teams like the lions and sea hawkswho are also vying for one of the last wild card seeds.
Current seed #2: Minnesota Vikings
11-3 | Giants | @Packers | @Bear
The Vikings clinched the NFC North Division title and can’t do worse than the 3rd seed. They are one game ahead of 49ers for the 2nd seed. The 49ers have the tiebreaker if both teams finish with the same record with the best conference record and will maintain that tiebreaker in any scenario where the 49ers and Vikings are tied at the end of the game. regular season. Thus, the Vikings will have to finish the season with a record equal to or better than the 49ers in the last three games to retain the second seed. The Vikings control their destiny in this regard.
Current #3 seed: San Francisco 49ers
10-4 | Commanders | @Raiders | Cardinals
The 49ers have clinched the NFC West Division title and can do no worse than their current third seed. So all they have left to play is the second seed and they’re hoping for a Vikings loss while trying to win their remaining three games. However, the 49ers will go with their third string QB Brock Purdy the rest of the way, including the playoffs. They’re counting on continued decent performance from Purdy, who is surrounded by point guards, a good offensive line and the league’s number one defense. The 49ers also have key players hit and out of the lineup, so at some point they may wonder if resting starters give them a better chance of reaching the roster. superbowl or if the competition for the second seed does.
Current seed #4: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6-8 | @Cardinals | Panthers | @Falcons
The Buccaneers have a one-game lead over the other three NFC South teams with two division games remaining. The Bucs haven’t played well so anything can happen, but they remain the favorites to win their division. 538 gives them a 72% chance of winning the NFC South and the 4th seed. And as bad as they played, it’s hard to see them falling to the Panthers or the Falcons, which is what they would have to do to lose the division title. The Saints have road games in Cleveland and Philadelphia (though the Eagles could remain starters), so their path to a division win doesn’t look promising. The Bucs can’t do better (or worse) than the 4th seed if they make the playoffs. The same goes for any other winner in the NFC South division.
Current seed #5: Dallas Cowboys
10-4 | Eagles | @Titans | @Commanders
The Cowboys have clinched a playoff berth and are almost certain to be the 5th seed. The only way they can’t is if the Giants win their remaining games and the Cowboys lose them, or if the Cowboys win their remaining games and the Eagles lose them. Either scenario is highly unlikely. If the Giants lose one or their next two games, or if the Cowboys win one of their next two games, they will have nothing to play in Week 18 and will most likely rest their starters against the Commanders, which would help significantly. the commanders in Earning a Wildcard Seed.
Current 6th seed: New York Giants
8-5-1 | @Vikings | Foals | @Eagles
The Giants beat the Commanders on Sunday for the second time this season to claim the sixth seed. They hold the tiebreaker over Commanders for this reason as well. Two more wins secure them a spot in the playoffs. 538 gives them an 87% chance of making the playoffs. At this point, they’re only favored against the Colts, but could benefit from the Eagles resting their starters in Week 18.
Current 7th Seed: Washington Commanders
7-6-1 | @49ers | Browns | cowboys
The Commanders hold a half-game lead over the Lions and Seahawks for the final playoff seed. However, they have a tough remaining schedule. 538 gives them a 35% chance of making the playoffs, The Upshot’s playoff simulator gives them a 42% chance. Their most plausible path would be to beat the Browns and then let the Cowboys rest their starters and win this game while the Lions and Seahawks lose one more game.
Current 8th seed: Seattle Seahawks
7-7 | @Chefs | Jets | Rams
The Seahawks hold the tiebreaker against the Lions by beating them earlier this season, but face a tougher remaining schedule. 538 gives them just a 30% chance of making the playoffs. They’re big underdogs against the Chiefs and don’t mix well against the Jets. 9-8 is probably the best plausible scenario for the Seahawks, but 8-9 is more likely.
Current 9th seed: Detroit Lions
7-7 | @Panthers | Bear | @Packers
The Lions will have a challenge in each of their remaining games and will need to win at least two to have a realistic chance of qualifying for the playoffs. But having won six of their last seven games, they are the hottest team competing for the final seeds. 538 gives them a 41% chance of making the playoffs – more than the Commanders or the Seahawks. The Lions must finish with one more win in their three remaining games than the Commanders and Seahawks to qualify for the playoffs.
How this is likely to unfold
It’s a virtual certainty that the Eagles are the first seed. They may lose to the Cowboys this weekend, which will set it back a week, but they will be the first seed.
The Cowboys will be the fifth seed. This is the second most likely scenario and a near certainty as well.
The Giants, with an 87% chance of making the playoffs, also look likely to land one of the wildcard seeders. I think they’ll be helped by the Eagles’ resting starters in Week 18.
And the Bucs look the most likely to win the NFC South and claim the 4th seed.
Beyond that, it’s more uncertain whether the Vikings or 49ers will be the second seed, and which team will be the seventh seed. Currently, the Vikings have a 58% chance of retaining the second seed according to The result playoff simulator.
The seventh seed is really up in the air, with the Commanders (43%), Lions (35%) and Seahawks (27%) the leading contenders. Their chance percentage represents their chance of making the playoffs, so they don’t add up to 100%.
Here’s what it looks like in terms of the most likely final seedings and first-round playoff matches:
- First seed: Philadelphia Eagles (Eagles have a 98% chance of being the first seed)
- Second seed: Minnesota Vikings (Vikings have a 58% chance of retaining the 2nd seed)
- Third seed: San Francisco 49ers (49ers have a 58% chance of being the 3rd seed)
- 4th seed: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Bucs have a 73% chance of being the 4th seed)
- Fifth seed: Dallas Cowboys (Cowboys have a 95% chance of being the 5th seed)
- Sixth seed: New York Giants (Giants have a 64% chance of being the 6th seed)
- Seventh seed: Washington Commanders/Detroit Lions/Seattle Seahawks
It’ll be interesting to see how things play out, but there’s a good chance the Vikings will end up facing a team they’ve already played in the wild card round, either the Giants, Commanders or Lions. The most likely wild card matches are:
- Dallas to Tampa Bay
- New York Giants at Minnesota
- Commanders in San Francisco
Lots of other possibilities, so stay tuned.
Survey
Who will the Vikings host in the Wild Card Round?
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21%
Washington Commanders
(130 votes)
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36%
Detroit Lions
(222 votes)
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34%
New York Giants
(211 votes)
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8%
Seattle Seahawks
(52 votes)
615 votes in total
Vote now
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