Purdue vs. LSU -14.5 (Citrus Bowl)
The choice: SKU -14.5
The leanPurdue sixth-year senior quarterback Aidan O’Connell’s Disabling the Citrus Bowl pushed this line back Double numbers earlier this month, coupled with LSU signal caller Jayden Daniels’ announcement that he will play in the Tigers’ final game. Add to that the fact that Purdue has a new coaching staff and the bowling game is the last item on the agenda this month for the Boilermakers and this one looks like a potential route to Orlando.
Oklahoma vs. Florida State -9.5 (Cheez-It Bowl)
The choiceState of Florida: -9.5
The lean: The line continues to swell for this one as the start nears, a testament to the level of respect the public has for Mike Norvell’s Seminoles, who won five straight games through the end of the regular season. Oklahoma’s defense has had a tough time this season, battling above-average quarterbacks, and Jordan Travis fits that moniker. Florida State should use this one in Orlando as a kind of catapult for bigger and better things in 2023.
Washington vs. Texas -3.5 (Alamo Ball)
The choiceWashington: +3.5
The lean: I liked Washington at +6 when this game started and I still like the Huskies who got 3.5 points in San Antonio. They are a 10-win team that finished the campaign on a six-game winning streak. In fact, you could argue that the Huskies were the best Pac-12 team to come, even with the Utah heroes in the championship game. We’ll get a quick look at a 2023 Heisman candidate here at Michael Penix for the Huskies. Texas will play without two of its top point guards, including Bijan Robinson, who have been selected.
South Carolina vs. Notre Dame -2.5 (Gator Bowl)
The choice: South Carolina +2.5
The lean: It’s just like the right choice, going with the team that finished the regular season with back-to-back top-10 wins for the first time in program history. Early departures from the Portal this month temporarily clouded an otherwise momentous recruiting cycle for the Gamecocks, who signed a top-20 class, including a record 14 four-star additions. Will this be Spencer Rattler’s last game in South Carolina? Rattler, along with WR1 Juice Wells, are expected to announce their intentions for 2023 when this one is complete.
Tulane vs. USC -1.5 (cotton bowl)
The choice: USC-1.5
The lean: I’m not giving up on USC after the blistering loss to Utah in the Pac-12 Finals. It could even be an official game later this month if the line stays where it is now. I think both teams will be motivated, so there’s nothing to worry about in that regard. Tulane will be able to move football against the Trojans, but I don’t believe the Green Wave will be able to stop USC’s offense either. It should be fun at AT&T Stadium.
Penn State vs. Utah -2.5 (Rose Bowl)
The choicePenn State: +2.5
The lean: With plenty of opt-out options for the Utes, this one is a Nittany Lions bent. Penn State has been one of the most consistent teams in the nation all year, whose only losses have come to two playoff teams. Can Utah summon some of the momentum they gained in the second half from the win over USC last time out? Hard to say. Being in this game last season helps, but Penn State has home-court advantage in what I think will be an extremely physical affair in sunny Pasadena.
Kansas State vs. Alabama -6.5 (Candy)
The choice: Alabama-6.5
The lean: This line has gone from Alabama by a field goal to nearly a touchdown since Crimson Tide features Will Anderson Jr. and Bryce Young announced they would play in the final game. And with that, I change course and take Alabama to cover, knowing the Crimson Tide are motivated in this one against the Big 12 champions. Kansas State should be able to match the physicality of the opponent , but these rosters aren’t comparable in terms of talent when both teams are playing with full play.
Tennessee vs. Clemson -5.5 (Orange Bowl)
The choiceTennessee: +5.5
The lean: I wrote two weeks ago that I was surprised the line was almost a touchdown in favor of Clemson and now it’s back a bit to 5.5. It shows a ton of respect for the Tigers and Cade Klubnik, who will be making his first career start as a quarterback. Meanwhile, Tennessee will play its first game without the brains of player Alex Golesh and far from a full lineup. This might be one of those games that weighs heavily on the motivator and the Vols had plenty to be motivated for this season considering what happened during awards season.
TCU vs. Michigan -7.5 (CFB Playoffs, Fiesta Bowl)
The choiceMichigan: -7.5
The lean: There just aren’t enough points here for me to take the horned frogs. Michigan is on a mission playing a brand of football that does not favor an upset victory for TCU unless Sonny Dykes’ team shows up and is able to withstand the bodies and power at the line of scrimmage for the Wolverines. Duggan will have to carry TCU in this one to make things interesting in the fourth quarter, but the more likely scenario is Michigan rushing for over 300 and advancing to the Finals.
Ohio State vs. Georgia -6.5 (CFB Playoff, Peach Bowl)
The choice: Georgia -6.5
The lean: It’s one of my best plays for the bowl season, so I’ll put it like this, time to hammer Georgia before that line goes over a touchdown. I think the Bulldogs are definitely the more physical team and I don’t know if Ohio State will be able to match that strength at the line of scrimmage. The only way the Buckeyes can cover this game and possibly advance to the Finals is if CJ Stroud puts in a Herculean performance against an elite defense. I don’t see it happening. Like most playoff games, this one won’t be particularly close.
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