Bengals bills huge for AFC image

If the term “game-changing scenarios” excites you, this is your moment of the NFL season.

Five AFC teams clinched a playoff berth with two games remaining. It’s just four in the NFC. Four of the eight divisions still need to be settled.

There’s a lot to decide, but the most important game of Week 17 is almost undeniably in Cincinnati on Monday night.

the Buffalo Tickets play at Cincinnati Bengals, and whoever wins that game could be directly tied to whoever wins the Super Bowl, or at least whoever represents the AFC there. It’s possible to go to a Super Bowl without a bye, but think about the difference for the Bills depending on whether they win or lose on Monday:

Bills win, get No. 1 seed: Buffalo would get a bye and be two home games away from a Super Bowl. His opponent in the split round would be the lowest seed remaining. This means that if the Bengals win AFC North, a Bills team will not play the Bengals or Kansas City Chiefs until the AFC Championship game.

Bills lose, Chiefs get no. 1: The Bengals would then take the lead for the No. 1 title. 2 seed, which means the Bills’ road to the Super Bowl goes from “goodbye, then two home games” to something like “no goodbye, dangerous host.” Chargers team wildcard weekend, Bengals split-round weekend, to the Chiefs for the AFC championship.” Just a little difference there.

(Yahoo Sports graphic by Michael Wagstaffe)

The Bills could still get the No. 1. 1 seed if they lose on Monday, but that requires losses from the Chiefs and Bengals and that seems unlikely. If the Bills want to win a Super Bowl, winning Monday night would be a great idea. The Bills will clinch the No. 1 seed this weekend if they win and the Chiefs lose at home to the Denver Broncos.

Here are the other Week 17 games that will have the biggest impact on the playoff picture, with some game-changing scenarios included:

If the Buccaneers win, they clinch the NFC South. But the Panthers beat the Buccaneers 21-3 earlier this season, and a win on Sunday would break the head-to-head tie.

If the Panthers win, they win the division. The NFC South is awful this season but this game has a big impact on the playoff picture.

It’s easier to give all of the Giants’ game-changing scenarios straight from the NFL…

New York clinches its playoff berth with:

1. NYG wins OR

2. NYG tie + SEA loss or tie + WAS loss or OR tie

3. Tie NYG + loss or tie SEA + loss or tie DET OR

4. Tie NYG + loss or tie WAS + loss or tie DET + loss or tie GB OR

5. SEA loss + WAS OR loss

6. SEA loss + DET loss + GB loss or tie OR

7. WAS loss + DET loss + GB loss

Do you have all that? It should also be noted that the Washington Commanders can clinch a playoff berth with a win and losses by the Seattle Seahawks, Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.

The Eagles clinch the NFC East with a win or a Dallas Cowboys defeat or draw. They would get the No. 1 seed with a win or loss over the Cowboys, Vikings and 49ers.

the Tennessee Titans have nothing on the line Thursday; win or lose to the Dallas Cowboys, they’ll face the Jaguars for the AFC South title in Week 18. Tennessee can’t get a wildcard berth anymore. But the Jaguars have a slim chance of earning a wild card with a win on Sunday and a loss in Week 18. The New York Times Playoff Simulator has it at around 6% in this scenario. Is that enough for the Jaguars to play Week 17 as they normally would? The division title is on the line in Week 18 no matter what.

The Dolphins can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a New York Jets loss (or tie, loss of the Jets and Steelers loss or draw). You won’t find the Dolphins in this week’s screening. The Miami Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is back in concussion protocol and it seems likely that he will be held for several weeks. Tagovailoa has missed all or most of three games this season and the Dolphins have gone 0-3 in those games. Miami missing the playoffs on a six-game losing streak to the end of the season would be overwhelming, but it’s possible now.

The Packers are suddenly alive in the playoff race. They’ll need some help, but if they win, chances are they’ll be fine. The Vikings are still in a battle with the San Francisco 49ers for the No. 2 seed and that could determine who would host a 49ers-Vikings game in the Divisional Round. So the Vikings have a reason to play.

It’s not a big Sunday night game, but it’s important. If the Ravens lose, the Bengals can clinch AFC North with a win or a tie Monday night. If the Ravens win, we will have an AFC North Championship game between the Ravens and the Bengals in Week 18.