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Beijing roars after lockdowns, but China isn't out of the woods

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Crowds gather to watch a band perform at Solana Mall in Beijing on Christmas Eve 2022 as the city recovers from a wave of Covid.

CGV | Visual Group China | Getty Images

BEIJING — People return to the streets of China’s capital as it emerges from a wave of Covid infections.

During the Monday morning rush hour, traffic in Beijing was up about 90% from a week ago – to “heavily congested” levels, according to Baidu data.

Over the weekend, ticket orders for Beijing city attractions doubled compared to the previous week, according to data cited by the Chinese business news site 21st Century Business Herald. CNBC could not verify the numbers.

Anecdotally, foot traffic in shopping malls and Universal Beijing Resort’s CityWalk over the weekend increased significantly to modestly crowded levels. Not all stores have reopened yet. Christmas is not a public holiday in mainland China, but often celebrated by young people.

Unlike the increase in traffic in the city of Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen still saw very low levels of congestion on Monday morning, according to data from Baidu. Both cities began to see a surge in Covid infections after Beijing.

The rebound in social activity in Beijing over the past few days is an example of how long it will take for the country to shake off the economic impact of zero-Covid checks.

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A month ago, residents of Beijing were grappling with a increase in apartment closures And subsequent public demonstrations. In early December, municipal and central authorities abruptly ended many Covid checks amid an upsurge in infections.

The city said visits to fever clinics increased 16-fold in a week – to 22,000 on December 1. 11. Four days later, the daily number had risen to 73,000 visits, but in December. On the 21st, the number had fallen to 65,000 visits, according to an official report on Saturday. The city has about 22 million inhabitants.

The share of severe Covid cases and elderly patients has increased, according to the report. He quoted a director of a local hospital who said the share of elderly visits had risen from less than 20% to almost 50%.

China’s elderly have lower Covid vaccination rates and often have underlying health conditions that make them more vulnerable to the virus. Anecdotally, deaths have increased.

However, there are fewer and fewer official disclosures. On Sunday, the Chinese National Health Commission stopped sharing daily figures on Covid infections and deaths, ending a nearly three-year practice.

One of the official arguments for maintaining strict Covid controls was that the already strained national health system would struggle to manage a rise in infections.

Covid cases still painful

Despite the lack of public data at the national level, Zhejiang province – bordering Shanghai – shared some of the most detailed official Covid figures on Sunday.

The province said daily Covid infections in the region have exceeded one million and will likely double to a peak of 2 million a day around the New Year. The province has a population of around 65.4 million, of which more than 70 % live in cities like Hangzhou, home to Alibaba.

Zhejiang said fever clinics in the province have a maximum daily capacity of 600,000. Authorities said among major hospitals in the province, there were more than 12,000 intensive care unit beds, or 9 .9% of open beds.

Monday morning traffic in Hangzhou was very light, according to Baidu data.

travel upwards

While people are staying at home in some parts of China as infections rise, other areas besides Beijing are seeing a resurgence in social activity.

The southwestern cities of Chengdu and Chongqing have seen big jumps in road traffic at levels of congestion as heavy as those in Beijing, according to Baidu data.

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