The Bahamas Bowl and Cure Bowl are behind us, which only means one thing: Bowl season is starting to pick up speed. Saturday brings with it six FBS showdowns on the slate, starting at 11 a.m. ET and running until 9:15 a.m.
Our staff is ready to jump on these matches starting in the afternoon with the only Power Five vs. Power Five showdown on the dock of the Las Vegas Bowl.
After this showdown between Florida and Oregon State, we turn our attention to the LA Bowl between Fresno State and Washington State, where the Bulldogs group of five enters as small favorites.
Our staff have broken down the two games below and shared their best bets for each. Read on to see how we bet on these afternoon games – and be sure to check out our picks for the Saturday Night Bowls.
Best Saturday Afternoon College Football Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the bowl games that our college football team is targeting in Saturday afternoon slate games. Click on the team logos for any of the matches below to jump to a specific bet covered in this article.
Florida vs. Oregon State
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Bowling season often comes down to available staff. The cliché, “Who wants to be there anymore?” exists for a reason. And heading into the Las Vegas Bowl, Oregon State has a clear advantage in that department over Florida.
The Gators need a win to avoid back-to-back losing seasons for the first time since 1978-79 and will be without three of their best players. All-American offensive lineman O’Cyrus Torrence, defensive captain Ventrell Miller and starting quarterback Anthony Richardson all retired to prepare for the NFL Draft.
Florida’s offense is fueled by a running game that ranks 16th in the nation with over 200 yards per game. Richardson is a big part of the ground game, rushing for 654 yards and nine touchdowns this season.
Oregon State’s defense only ranks 82nd in Rush Success this weekend, but with Jack Miller making his first career start under Gators center, and wide receiver Justin Shorter — the Florida’s leading receiver in yards per game – choosing to sit out, the Beavers are going to be able to devote a lot of attention to running backs Montrell Johnson and Trevor Ettiene.
Then there’s Oregon State, which enters the game on a high as the winner of six of its last seven, including an upset win over rival Oregon in the regular season finale.
The Beavers’ running game is just as effective as Florida’s, but Oregon State will actually have all three All-Pac-12 offensive linemen active for this game.
The Gators defense sits 96th in Defensive Rush Success and will be challenged by Damien Martinez, one of the most explosive running backs in the nation.
To make matters worse, Florida’s run defense takes a huge step back without Miller. Florida allows 5.4 yards per carry without Miller, compared to 4.1 when he plays. The Beavers offense is physical, and we’re going to see how much Florida’s defense may or may not want to be there.
The Gators have struggled to consistently move the ball this season with all of their offensive stars present, and I think they’re going to have a hard time staying within single digits of the Beavers.
One of the biggest shifts of the weekend will be Oregon State’s offense against. this Florida defense.
For starters, the Gators rank 97th or lower in every defensive “five-factor category,” while the Beavers enter the top 25 in pass rate, havoc allowed and points per opportunity on offense.
Of course, potential first-round pick Anthony Richardson not playing will hurt this Florida team, leading to a less explosive and less successful Gators offense.
Keep in mind that this Oregon State defense is good enough to stop Florida’s offense with Richardson. Without him, I expect a lot of fast runs and good field position for Oregon State.
It may also be a classic case of “who wants to be there more,” with the Beavers wrapping up one of the most successful years in recent memory and looking to build momentum for the next season.
Meanwhile, with his star QB absent, Billy Napier may already be looking ahead to the 2023-24 season.
Due to fast drives in Florida, Oregon State’s strong on-court position, and a lag between the Beavers and Gators when Oregon State has the ball, I expect hope the Beavers score a ton of points this weekend.
Take: Oregon State team total over 31.5
Fresno State vs. washington state
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By CJ Vogel
Fresno State quarterback Jake Haener has been very impactful for the Bulldogs’ point spread this season. Since returning from injury and starting six games, Fresno State has averaged 37.2 points per game.
However, the team’s success doesn’t hinge solely on Haener’s performance, as running back Jordan Mims rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored 16 touchdowns, while receiver Jalen Moreno-Cropper also over 1,000 receiving yards with five scores.
The Cougars, meanwhile, struggled defensively in their final regular-season game against Washington as the Huskies racked up 703 yards of offense, including 485 passing yards from quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
While the Cougars have a solid offense, the Bulldogs defense has allowed just 30 points in their last three games.
Despite being a Mountain West team facing a Pac-12 opponent in the LA Bowl, Fresno State should not be underestimated, as they have proven to be competitive against top teams. I would recommend betting Fresno State at no more than -3.
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