Last year, No. 2 Michigan did something no one expected. After years of struggling to break through against his rival ohio statethe Wolverines eliminated the Buckeyes in Ann Arbor, won the Big Ten and made their own college football Playoff debut. Unfortunately, what was a tremendous achievement for Jim Harbaugh’s program didn’t have the happiest ending. Wolverines were eliminated by No. 3 Georgia 34-11 in the Orange Bowl. A month later, Harbaugh was interviewed for the Minnesota Vikings job on National Signing Day.
Many wondered if the 2021 season would turn out to be an outlier. This was not the case. Michigan started 2022 where it left off by knocking out opponents during the regular season. He then spanked the Buckeyes again – this time in the Ohio State House – before going on to crush Purdue in the Big Ten Championship. Now, he’s back in the college football playoffs as the No. 1 player in the college football playoffs. 2 seeds for the second consecutive season.
But can the Wolverines improve on their playoff performance from last season? Can they not only pick up a win and reach the national title match, but win it all? While the Wolverines aren’t the favorites to do so — it remains the Georgia team that beat it last season en route to a national title — it’s not out of the question.
Many might believe it, but these same people never thought Michigan would make the playoffs last year and didn’t think they would be back in 2022. Yet they are there and there is a path to success. Here are three reasons why Michigan can be this year’s national champion.
1. He improved at quarterback
Cade McNamara was a perfectly fitting quarterback for the Wolverines in 2021. He was a talented game director who was probably capable of more than was asked of him; however, he’s not the same caliber of quarterback you typically see in college football playoffs or among elite teams. Of course, we can say that Georgia was in the same situation with Stetson Bennet last year, but I still managed to win it all. Still, there’s one big difference between Bennett and McNamara (besides Georgia’s historic great defense): Bennett could run. Cade McNamara couldn’t and didn’t.
Ask any defensive coordinator if they’d rather face a mobile quarterback and they’ll be quick to tell you.
To enter JJ McCarthy, who has brought another dynamic to Michigan’s offense this season. Not only did McCarthy have better passing numbers (McNamara had a passing efficiency of 141.87 with 15 touchdowns and six interceptions last season, compared to McCarthy’s rating of 155.42, 20 touchdowns and three picks this season), but he’s a much bigger threat with his legs. . McCarthy rushed for 254 yards and four touchdowns, but he’s capable of more if needed. He can use his legs if a game goes down in a way that McNamara never was able to.
It’s much easier to defend a team with a quarterback who will stay in the pocket in the run and pass game. When backing up to pass, a defense knows where the quarterback will be and can plan accordingly. In the run, a mobile quarterback forces a defense to play 11-on-11 instead of 11-on-10.
McCarthy also offers more stability in the short-to-medium passing game. McCarthy and McNamara have posted similar numbers on throws of 20 or more air yards. McNamara had more yards per attempt, but McCarthy threw for higher touchdowns and lower interceptions.
On the shorter stuff, however, McCarthy was much better. When throwing passes 19 yards or less overhead, McCarthy had a passing efficiency of 149.4 with 12 touchdowns and one interception. Last season, on the same pitches, McNamara was 131.0 with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions. In other words, McCarthy can hit the same homers as McNamara, but he’s also much better at hitting singles and doubles. Not only do defenses have to worry about McCarthy’s legs, they have to worry about the whole court in the passing game.
2. He runs the ball as well as any team
Much of the credit in Michigan’s running game success should go to the offensive line. The unit won the Joe Moore Prize, awarded to the best offensive line in the country, for the second consecutive year. It’s a big reason the Wolverines can run the ball effectively no matter who’s in the backfield. When transferring to running backs, Michigan running backs average 2.75 yards before contact per run. It is the fifth highest rating in the country. Michigan’s offense ranked fourth nationally in yards per rush at 5.64, fifth in first downs per rush at 31.1 percent, and fourth in rushing completion rate at 50.3 percent.
Ironically, while football has become easier to pass, it’s almost impossible these days to win a national title without a solid running game. Michigan has one – even without Blake Corumwho was injured in Michigan’s win over Illinois. Donovan Edwards has since stepped in and been exceptional, rushing for 216 yards (9.82 per attempt) against Ohio State with two touchdowns and 185 yards (7.4 per attempt) and another touchdown against Purdue.
Being able to run the ball puts you in control of the game, and it’s something Michigan has used all season when taking a lead.
3. Defense does not allow opponents to complete drives
You can’t win football games without scoring, and not allowing your opponent to score helps a lot too. Michigan was excellent on both counts, finishing seventh nationally in offense, scoring 40.1 ppg and fourth in defense, allowing 13.4 ppg.
Still, if you look at some of the box numbers, Michigan’s defense looks average. After losing Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, who had 25 sacks and 28.5 TFL between them, Michigan’s passing rush has waned a bit this season. However, the numbers are somewhat misleading. The Wolverines rank 58th nationally in pressure rate (33.3%) and 34th in sack rate (7.7%), but part of that drop in performance was with Michigan’s approach.
With such big leads, the Wolverines didn’t have to bring much extra pressure and often sat in cover, forcing opponents to endure long drives. Then, on the rare occasion the opponent got into scoring position, Michigan smothered it. Opponents scored on just 21.1% of their possessions against Wolverines. It was the third lowest rating in the country. When they reached the red zone, Michigan’s opponents only scored touchdowns 37.9 percent of the time. This also ranked third nationally.
It’s one thing to get in position to score, it’s another to complete the drive. Michigan’s defense has been phenomenal in keeping teams from finishing practices.
Make a CFP file for… No. 1 Georgia | No. 3 TCUs | No. 4 Ohio State
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