East Carolina Ratings vs. Coastal Carolina Ratings
Two teams from the Carolinas’ Group of Five will meet in Birmingham, AL for the TicketSmarter Birmingham Bowl on Tuesday night.
The game between Coastal Carolina and East Carolina features a pair of veteran starting quarterbacks who set multiple program records at Grayson McCall and Holton Ahlers. This duo combined for 47 touchdowns and just seven interceptions on the season, so expect to see plenty of offensive fireworks.
So where is the betting value in a game that has seen a lot of line movement on both the spread and the total before kickoff? Let’s take a closer look.
Despite losing a lot of talent in skill position, the coastal offense still cooked for most of the season with a healthy McCall, who finished in the top five nationally in the efficiency of the passing, yards per attempt and completion percentage.
He missed some time late in the season with an injury before returning for the Sun Belt Championship, where he was obviously still hampered.
However, with more than three weeks since that contest, I’d expect McCall — the only player to win Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year three times — to be nearing full strength after s be committed to playing in this game despite entering the transfer portal.
Stud center Willie Lampkin will do the same and dress Tuesday night.
I can’t say the same for a defense that has really struggled all season. The Chants will not have the following players available in Birmingham:
- CB Lance Boykin (NFL Draft)
- CB D’Jordan Strong (NFL Draft)
- BY Josaiah Stewart (portal)
- C.B. Manny Stokes Jr. (portal)
That means the Chants will have to make do without their best passing thrower and two best cornerbacks on a defense that finished outside the EPA top 100 by assists. That’s not great for a unit that I had already ranked 101st in the nation after adjusting for the opponent.
His passing rush was clearly strength, but losing Stewart — who set the program record for sacks in 2021 — really hurts in that department.
It should also be noted that Coastal Carolina will be without head coach Jamey Chadwell, who held the same position at Liberty. However, McCall knows the offense very well and highly respected offensive coordinator Willy Korn is still there, so I don’t think it’s a very significant loss for this game.
ECU has a very similar profile at Coastal Carolina with a veteran quarterback in Ahlers, who was a starting quarterback in Greenville for five seasons. He wields an electric attack that can beat opponents in multiple ways.
Star running back Keaton Mitchell rushed for over 1,300 yards with a showy average of 7.4 yards per attempt. Only Michigan’s Donovan Edwards averaged more (7.5) among RBs with at least 100 carries.
Meanwhile, Ahlers, who finished the regular season with 23 touchdowns to just five interceptions, has a plethora of weapons to work with on the outside, led by Isaiah Winstead and CJ Johnson. This duo combined for more than 140 catches and 1,900 yards during the season.
The Pirates offense, which I ranked in the top 40 units nationally at full strength, will be missing a pair of key contributors.
Former Oklahoma transfer Ryan Jones will skip the bowl to focus on the NFL Draft. The tight end will be sorely lacking in the red zone in particular.
Another Jones at center Avery Jones will also not play in the Birmingham Bowl after moving to Illinois.
As a result, Hampton Ergle will make his first career start having taken just nine snaps this season. He’s an elite size at 6-foot-7 and 305 pounds, but needs to fill the big shoes of Jones — a three-year-old starter who’s only allowed one sack this season. He can sometimes have his hands full against Coastal nose tackle Jerrod Clark.
On the other side of the ball, the ECU defense excelled against the run all season but really struggled against the pass, as they also ranked outside of the EPA top 100 by passing and Last 10 nationally in pass. Success rate.
It’s also a unit that faltered late in the regular season, allowing Temple and Houston to reach at least 42 points in their last two games.
It doesn’t help that he struggles to generate a pass rush, ranking 98th in the Sack Rate.
Analysis of the game between Eastern Carolina and Coastal Carolina
Toggle the drop-down menus below to hide or show the statistical correspondence between Coastal Carolina and Eastern Carolina:
Coastal Carolina Offense vs. East Carolina Defense
East Carolina Offense vs. Carolina Coastal Defense
Pace of play / Other
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| PFF tackle | 103 | 37 |
| PFF cover | 118 | 112 |
| SP+ special teams | 124 | 126 |
| Seconds per game | 29.0 (114) | 26.8 (74) |
| Peak rate | 58.6% (28) | 46.8% (107) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, PS+, Focus on professional football and SportSource Analytics.
Coastal Carolina vs East Carolina Betting Picks
They’re two oddly similar teams when you compare them statistically. They even both have extremely poor special teams units.
Assuming McCall is at full power, I don’t see the ECU getting many stops when it comes down to switch. The Pirates can also really struggle on third downs, where McCall earns his living. During the season, ECU finished outside the top 100 in third downs, mostly due to poor pass defense.
And when ECU have the ball, Ahlers should enjoy the same success against a very poor pass defense that will be down two starting cornerbacks and its best passer.
That’s bad news considering who were by far the most productive players on that side of the ball. Safeties and linebackers are so bad for Coastal, so the Pirates should exploit this unit with ease.
The pacing is a bit of a concern since this isn’t a game for sprinters, but I still believe both offenses will hit the 30s here.
I bet over 58 earlier this month which has obviously taken some money since. I would still play 64.5 but I wouldn’t go above 65.
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